The Bookie of Eli

In week 0 we got an appetizer with Iowa State taking down Kansas State 24 – 21 in Dublin, Ireland. That was a fantastic warm up for the main course, the long awaited week 1 of College Football, with ranked match ups straight out of the gate. From Thursday to Saturday there will be 91 games involving FBS teams and it would be easy to get overwhelmed. I’ve taken a deep dive into every game and narrowed down the best bets and analysis to have you ready for week 1.

(1)Texas @ (3)Ohio State

This is the premier week 1 match up and it doesn’t get much bigger. The preseason #1 team in the country visits last year’s national champion’s Ohio State in a huge early season match up. Texas returns a ton of talent on both sides of the ball and will be led by quarterback Arch Manning who has patiently waited for his turn to shine. Ohio State enters the season ranked #3 in the AP poll and always has talent including last year’s freshman phenom wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. The quarterback position has been a strength for Ohio State since before Urban Meyer was coaching, but will debut an unproven signal caller in Julian Sayin on Saturday. Sayin has thrown 12 pass attempts in college and will be facing one of the best pass defenses in the country in his first start. The Horseshoe will be absolutely rocking on Saturday which will play a major factor, but losing 14 players to the draft will be tough to replace for the home squad. Additionally, Texas has won 11 straight road games which is the longest active FBS streak. History is also on the side of the preseason top team as the last three non-conference AP top 3 match ups have been won by the team ranked #1. I’m leaning Texas for this game, primarily because I think Arch Manning will outplay Julian Sayin in the battle of inexperienced quarterbacks. The analytics also point towards a Texas win, but expect a close contest until the end.

Best Bet: Texas ML (+105)

(9)LSU @ (4)Clemson

Dabo Swinney’s squad will host #9 LSU in Death Valley in a match up of two teams with playoff aspirations. There are more similarities between these two programs beyond just the mascot and stadium name. They also both return quarterbacks who will be in New York for the Heisman Trophy in December and be high draft picks if they perform to expectations. Both have head coaches who have achieved success, but with the nature of college football will feel the pressure from their fan base if they do not win. Clemson who are favored to repeat as ACC champs will be expecting more than its first round playoff loss to Texas last season. LSU have struggled in season openers recently losing their last 5 games to start the year while being the favorite in four of those games. I like Clemson here due to an explosive offense and defensive line that will prove too much to handle in a tight affair.

Best Bet: Clemson -3.5 (-110)

(6)Notre Dame @ (10)Miami

If two top 10 match ups to start the year wasn’t enough, on Sunday #6 ranked Notre Dame visits the #10 ranked Miami Hurricanes in Miami Gardens, Florida. Last year’s #1 overall pick in the NFL draft, Cam Ward, is being replaced by Georgia transfer Carson Beck for Miami. For Notre Dame, redshirt freshman CJ Carr won a quarterback competition in the offseason in what coach Marcus Freeman described as a “difficult decision”. Both quarterbacks will have big shoes to fill, but Beck will boast the experience as he passed for over 7,000 yards and 50 touchdowns for the Bulldogs in 2 seasons. Carr will have the luxury of Heisman candidate Jeremiyah Love at running back who has scored in 13 consecutive games. A strong running game and staunch defense have Notre Dame favored in this road, but once again I’ll take the best quarterback in a tight contest. Poor weather will also play a major factor in southern Florida.

Best Bet: Miami ML (+120), Under 52 (-110)

Virginia Tech vs (13)South Carolina (in Atlanta)

The Aflac Kickoff Game on Sunday in Atlanta will feature head coach Shane Beamer for South Carolina taking on the team his father, Frank, coached to a school record 238 wins. This will be the first match up between the two programs since 1991. The Gamecocks finished last season strongly, but lost key pieces to a team that wound up 15th in the final CFP poll. South Carolina’s offense will rely heavily on quarterback LaNorris Sellers who had a breakout season last year and is already receiving Heisman hype. Utah State transfer running back Rahsul Faison will give Sellers a potent ground game after he was deemed eligible for this season. Virginia Tech will be outmatched here, but watch out for quarterback Kyron Drones for the Hokies who has played well when healthy.

Best Bet: South Carolina -7.5 (-110)

(8)Alabama @ Florida State

Kalen DeBoer’s first season as Crimson Tide head coach did not meet the previous standards set by Nick Saban. Albiet a victory over Georgia and LSU provided some highlights, losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma were inexcusable. More stability will be key for DeBoer and new quarterback Ty Simpson to find success this season. Florida State is coming off its worst season in 52 years finishing 2-10 in 2024. For Alabama a veteran offensive line, star studded receiver room and a defense which returns 8 of its 10 leading tacklers will ease Simpson into this game against a struggling Florida State program. While starting running back Bam Miller will miss the first few weeks of the season with a collarbone injury, Alabama always has another running back ready to go. For the Seminoles, new coordinators and a new quarterback in Tommy Castellanos from Boston College will be given a tough test to open their season.

Best Bet: Alabama -13.5 (-110)

(24)Tennessee vs Syracuse (in Atlanta)

Another game in Atlanta where two teams fresh off 10 win seasons meet with similar storylines. Both teams must replace key pieces of their offense from a season ago. Tennessee must replace quarterback Nico Iamaleava who left for UCLA with Appalachian State transfer Joey Aguilar as well as some new offensive lineman. While Syracuse lost quarterback Kyle McCord to the draft as well as 10 players on offense. Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli will lead the Orange offense that must replace essentially all of last year’s production. While Syracuse and Coach Fran Brown are building a quality program, Tennessee is too talented to not put up points in this match up of orange teams.

Best Bet: Tennessee -14 (-110)