The Bookie of Eli

A star studded first week of college football is followed by another week of intense matchups and rivalries. While the teams with tough matchups last week face cupcakes, blue blood programs like (15)Michigan and (18)Oklahoma face off this Saturday in Norman, Oklahoma. Ranked teams such as (11)Illinois, (12)Arizona State, and (17)SMU all have tricky games this week against solid opponents. The winner of the “Cy-Hawk” trophy will also be chosen this weekend as (16)Iowa State hosts their in-state rival the Iowa Hawkeyes.

(15)Michigan @ (18)Oklahoma

Two programs with new quarterbacks and lofty expectations meet at Memorial Stadium in the marquee game of week 1. Both schools had down years by their standards last season, but will have renewed optimism that this is their chance to move up the polls. These teams have only met once on the field with a 1976 Orange Bowl win by Oklahoma the lone encounter. The home team opened as -2.5 point favorites, but that line has already moved to -5 with early bettors having more confidence in Oklahoma. Last week Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer, who transferred from Washington State, ran it up on inferior Illinois State to the tune of nearly 400 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. On the opposite side to ranked freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood started his Michigan career off with a solid showing against New Mexico State. A rushing attack led by Justice Haynes will be relied on heavily against a retooled Oklahoma run defense. At Oklahoma, Brent Venables is 11-5 ATS as a home favorite and the Sooners are 15-4 outright in Norman under Venables. I like the Sooners at home due to a more experienced quarterback as well as a defense which looks improved from a season ago.

Best Bet: Oklahoma -5 (-110)

Iowa @ (16)Iowa State

Already 2-0 with a ranked win over Kansas State as underdogs in week 0, (16)Iowa State looks to continue their quest for the Big 12 crown. The Cyclones handled FCS opponent South Dakota last week easily in a 55-7 win and hope to continue that momentum in this early season in-state rivalry game. Returning Cyclones quarterback Rocco Becht has looked the part with quality performances in both of his games this season. Iowa faced off against Albany last week in their opening game and needed a half until their offense got going in a 34-7 win. The annual battle for the Cy-Hawk trophy is a rivalry defined by both teams’ physical point of attacks on both sides of the ball with an emphasis on minimizing mistakes. Since 2004, the under is 17-3 in these games so I’ll take the under at 41.5 points(-110). One of the few teams in the country with a quality win away from home, I also like Iowa State -3.5 (-110) lead by the underrated Becht.

Best Bet: Iowa State -3 (-110), under 41.5 points (-110)

Baylor @ (17)SMU

(17)SMU was afforded a leisurely start to their season with a 42-13 win over Texas A&M-Commerce while Baylor wasn’t so lucky. An opening game against Auburn resulted in a 38-24 loss despite Sawyer Robertson’s 419 yards passing and 3 touchdowns. As is usually the case, offense was not the problem for Baylor last week as Auburn dominated on the ground with 4 rushing touchdowns. Dual threat quarterback Jackson Arnold did whatever he wanted to the Bears defense finishing with 137 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns by himself. SMU have a mobile quarterback of their own in Kevin Jennings and he will use Auburn’s week 1 film as a blueprint to take down the Baylor defense. Baylor missed 22 tackles in week 1 and if that trend continues against Jennings then the SMU offense will score at will. The bookies currently have the over/under for this game as the 2nd highest (64.5) lines among all the games on the week 2 slate. SMU and Jennings will dominate the time of possession and take care of business at home against a high-powered Baylor offense.

Best Bet: SMU -2.5 (-110)

(11)Illinois @ Duke

A pair of untested teams meet in Durham, North Carolina with the fighting Illini hoping for a chance to play their way into the college football playoff this year. Both teams had comprehensive victories against inferior opponents last week with Duke beating Elon 45-17 on Thursday and Illinois slamming Western Illinois 52-3. Both quarterbacks were highly efficient finishing with 3 touchdowns each and no interceptions in week 1. Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer is one of the nation’s top returning passers and he will face a Duke defense which surrendered 17 points to an FCS opponent a week ago. Tulane transfer Darian Mensah also played well last year and this will be his first major prove-it game for Duke. I like the over in this game with both offenses being underrated and Duke’s defense giving up lots of points.

Best Bet: Over 49.5 (-110)

(12)Arizona State @ Mississippi State

Quarterback Sam Leavitt and the Arizona State Sun Devils travel to face off with Mississippi State and Blake Shapen. Last week both teams had easy opponents and the results were similar with Arizona State dispatching Northern Arizona 38-19 and Mississippi State defeating Southern Miss 34-17. The line in this game has already moved from -10 to -6.5 Arizona State with the majority of the early money on Mississippi State. Arizona State beat Mississippi State last year in Tempe, Arizona and I expect more of the same here with the dual threat Leavitt running all over the Bulldog defense. The line moving in Mississippi State’s favor is a good outcome as the Sun Devils just need to win be a touchdown to cover.

Best Bet: Arizona State -6.5 (-110)