Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who last time out lost badly in the Super Bowl, take on Justin Herbert and the Chargers in a highly anticipated and historic matchup. In just the 2nd NFL game ever played in Brazil the defending AFC champion Chiefs are a 3 point favorite with the total set at 46.5 points. In 7 of the last 8 meetings between these AFC West foes, the game has been decided by 7 points or fewer. Both teams enter the season with high hopes, especially Mahomes and the Chiefs who have dominated the NFL for the last decade. A high-scoring contest with 2 great offenses in Sao Paulo, Brazil on a rare Friday night NFL game is sure to follow.
Coach Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers have already had a significant injury with LT Rashawn Slater being placed on IR during the preseason. That will be a major blow to a team that wants to put an emphasis on playing physical up front and controlling possession. The addition of rookie running back Omarion Hampton and free agent Najee Harris supports this claim. The Chargers gave Herbert much needed weapons this offseason drafting wide receiver Tre Harris and resigning veteran Keenan Allen. The Chiefs will want to protect Mahomes better this season as he faced pressure at the highest rate in the NFL a year ago on standard dropbacks. The selection of LT Josh Simmons in the first round of the NFL draft is meant to remedy this issue. While Mahomes was under pressure last year, he still managed to be the 6th most efficient passer against zone coverage. The Chiefs offense, which struggled at times a season ago despite Mahomes’ play, will welcome back the return of a fully healthy Hollywood Brown and Isiah Pacheco. Both teams had good offenses a season ago and should be improved on that side of the ball with offseason additions and healthy starters. The main source of concern for both teams is their pass defenses which ranked 29th and 30th last year in air yards allowed week 11 thru 18. The Chargers secondary is old and the Chiefs secondary is unproven so I like the point total of 46.5 (-110) to go over in this game. As far as player props go I like Justin Herbert to have over 22 pass completions (-110) with a shootout against the Chiefs on the cards. I also like Travis Kelce over 49.5 receiving yards (-120) with Rashee Rice still out for suspension and Hollywood Brown not having many meaningful reps until this game.
Best Bet: Over 46.5 (-110)
Player Props: Herbert Over 22 Completions (-110), Kelce Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
The Bookie of Eli 
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