Recap
The Premier League returns from the international break with a banging weekend that features 8 matches on Saturday and a Manchester derby on Sunday. 3rd place Arsenal hosts Nottingham Forest at the Emirates while title challengers Chelsea travels to Brentford. A London derby for Tottenham against West Ham also highlights the action-packed first day of the weekend. Liverpool who are currently first in the Premier League table and favorites to repeat as champions, travel to take on newly promoted Burnley. Many of the Premier League’s best players such as Bernardo Silva, Noni Madueke, and Sandro Tonali featured and scored for their respective nations over this past international break. Their club teams will hope that momentum can be carried over into what is already match week 4 of the 2025/26 Premier League season.
Nottingham Forest @ Arsenal
New Manager in Charge at Forest
3rd place Arsenal hosts 10th place Nottingham Forest at the Emirates in their first game back from the international break. The Gunners boast an impressive head to head record with Forest of 4 wins and a draw in their last 6 matches against Nottingham. Nottingham Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis decided to part ways with manager Nuno Espirito Santo over the break and replaced him with Ange Postecoglou. Santo took a team that was battling relegation to the Europa League last year and this termination came as a surprise for many. Critics will point out a humiliating home defeat to West Ham 3-0 before the break and Santo’s criticism about lack of spending as the reasoning behind the move. Either way, Postecoglou was appointed within 13 hours of Santo’s termination and following a poor showing at Tottenham last year in the league will look to revive his managerial career. This will be an extremely tough matchup for Forest facing a top side who also retains home field advantage. I like the over in this game with Forest showing life under their new manager early and stealing a goal before Arsenal piles it on late.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 (-120)
Wolverhampton @ Newcastle
Life Without Isak
Both sides enter this fixture with room for improvement, registering just 1 win from their last 6 league outings combined. Newcastle’s attack has struggled with the absence of star striker Alexander Isak who recently transferred to Liverpool. The Magpies have averaged a meager 0.67 goals per game so far this season and they will need new striker Nick Woltemade from Stuttgart to fill the hole left from Isak’s departure. Newcastle’s defense has been solid so far only conceding 3 goals in 3 games with all of them coming in their game against Liverpool. Wolves have the same amount of goals scored as Newcastle, but have conceded a staggering 8 goals in just 3 Premier League games. So while both teams have been poor offensively to start, by comparison Newcastle has been much stronger in defense. I like Newcastle to get back on track in this one with a home win against a dysfunctional Wolves side at St. James’ Park.
Best Bet: Newcastle -1.5 (+120)
Brighton @ Bournemouth
Can Bournemouth Form Continue?
Bournemouth who have had a quality start to their season, winning 2 out of 3 and sitting in 7th currently, will welcome Brighton to Vitality Stadium. Last time out Brighton pulled a major upset with a last minute win over Manchester City. The Seagulls have earned 4 points from 3 games and sit at 11th place in the Premier League table. Brighton have emerged victorious in 5 out of their last 6 fixtures against Bournemouth head to head. A 1-0 shutout win over Tottenham by Bournemouth in their last game before the break highlights just how strong their defense is. In fact, in their last 3 home matches Bournemouth games have gone under the expected goal total of 2.5 goals. It’s hard to get a read on this game with both sides possessing quality and momentum, so I’ll take the under in this game with the total currently at 2.5 goals. Bournemouth forward Antoine Semenyo will be a player to watch for the Cherries as he has consistently looked like their most likely player to score.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals (+120)
Player Prop: Antoine Semenyo Over .5 Goals (+260)
Aston Villa @ Everton
Grealish Resurgance Powers Everton
A Jack Grealish inspired Everton will host an under pressure Unai Emery and Aston Villa who have struggled mightily to open the season. Grealish, a Manchester City loanee, has looked like a renewed player since joining Everton assisting 4 times in just 3 appearances. At home Everton have been a tough side to face with 3 consecutive home wins and no goals conceded in those matches. By contrast, Aston Villa have managed only 2 wins in their last 6 outings averaging a pedestrian 0.5 goals scored per match. Villa have actually failed to score in their first 3 league games this season something they haven’t done since 1998. I predict that Grealish and Everton will make it 4 in a row for Aston Villa and a frustrated Emery which would make them just the 4th team in Premier League history to fail to score in their first 4 league games.
Best Bet: Everton ML (+140)
Tottenham @ West Ham
Spurs Title Contender or Pretenders?
4th place Tottenham are hoping to bounce back from a sobering 1-0 home defeat to Bournemouth before the international break. With 2 wins from their first 2 games, including a win against Manchester City, fans were getting their hopes up for a Premier League title. While a loss to a quality Bournemouth side will not doom their season, a poor result this week to a struggling West Ham team would put a major dent in their chances. West Ham had the opposite start to their season starting slow with 2 losses from their first 2 games before a much needed 3-0 victory over Nottingham Forest last time out. Head to head Spurs have the distinct advantage on the pitch going unbeaten in 6 of their last 7 matches against West Ham. The Hammers conceded a ludicrous 5 goals versus Chelsea in match week 2, so I like Tottenham to get back on track against a porous West Ham defense.
Best Bet: Tottenham ML (+115)
Manchester United @ Manchester City
Deja Vu for both Manchester clubs?
A season removed from Manchester United’s worst Premier League finish since 1990, where they ended in 15th place, nothing has changed so far this year for the Red Devils. United have stumbled out of the gates early this season losing to Arsenal in the opening week before earning 4 points from favorable fixtures against Burnley and Fulham. Pep Guardiola’s team had an uncharacteristically poor season last year by their own standards losing a multitude of games at the final minute including the one above against Manchester United last season. City fans at Brighton’s American Express Stadium in matchweek 3 were left in dismay when Brajan Gruda gave Brighton all 3 points with a goal in the 89th minute. Pep and City will need to recover from that shock result quickly as they host a young Manchester United squad eager to build on momentum earned in their easier fixtures. So far this season Manchester United have not scored many goals with 4 out of their last 6 matches going under 2.5 goals. Both sides have an element of unpredictability to their game so I’m going to stay away from the spread and focus on the under in this one.
The Bookie of Eli 
Leave a comment