(Full Card At End)
Intro
Week 5 of the college football season is already upon us and it brings multiple major matchups with serious playoff implications. Blue blood programs (3)Penn State and (6)Oregon headline the day in a game that will be a rematch of last season’s Big 10 championship game where the Ducks won a shootout 45-37. Not to be outdone the SEC will have a pair of big time games on Saturday when (17)Alabama meets (5)Georgia between the hedges as well as (4)LSU traveling to (13)Ole Miss. With so many great matchups, I’ll break down all of the major games on Saturday using statistics and historical trends to offer insights for the best bets and player props.
(21)USC @ (23)Illinois
Can Illinois Recover from Blowout?
Last week Illinois got dismantled by Indiana in a 63-10 blowout loss on the road. This time out they host an undefeated USC team whose best win is a 45-31 win over a rebuilding Michigan State team last week. USC is a 6.5 point favorite on the road and is 0-1 ATS as the away team so far this year. Illinois is 3-1 ATS for the season, but all 3 covers came against inferior competition before they were exposed last week against Indiana. Indiana opened the game with a blocked punt returned for a touchdown and the score was 35-10 by halftime. The Fighting Illini defense was nowhere to be found in that contest and will face another test when USC QB Jayden Maiava lines up against them on Saturday. Maiava has 1,223 passing yards through 4 games this year with 9 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Receiver Makai Lemon has been a nightmare to defend racking up 438 yards receiving and 3 touchdowns already. Illinois star CB Xavier Scott will possibly miss the rest of the season with a lower leg injury which will be a big loss for their defense. I like USC’s dynamic passing offense against a reeling Illinois defense without their best player.
Best Bet: USC -6.5 (-110)
(4)LSU @ (13)Ole Miss
Major SEC Rivalry
LSU boasts impressive wins so far this season with the defense shining in every game so far holding their opponents to 10 points or less in each of their 4 wins. The Tigers rank 9th in the country in scoring defense surrendering a measely 9 points per game and 17th in total defense allowing just 246 yards per game. This will be a matchup of strength on strength as Ole Miss enters with the 5th most yards per game on offense averaging 543 yards per game and rank 14th in generating 20+ yard plays on 11% of their snaps. There has also been some gamesmanship this week, as LSU star LB Whit Weeks announced on Instagram his relationship with Lane Kiffin’s daughter. Ole Miss QB Austin Simmons has been banged up and missed their last game although he was not listed on the injury report and should be ready to go. However, I like LSU and their talented defense to slow down Ole Miss regardless of their QB and grind out the win in Oxford.
Best Bet: LSU ML (+100), Under 56.5 (-110)
(1)Ohio State @ Washington
Top Ranked Buckeyes Travel to Undefeated Washington
The #1 team in the country the Ohio State Buckeyes face an equally unbeaten Washington Huskies team on the road this Saturday. QB Julian Sayin and Ohio State haven’t been tested since their week 1 slugfest with Texas and took care of business against Miami of Ohio last week 37-9. The Buckeyes defense has been stout so far surrending just 16 points total through 3 games. Washington has a RB in Jonah Coleman who leads the nation with 9 rushing touchdowns. Conversely Ohio State’s defense has not allowed a single rushing touchdown so far this year. The Huskies’ also have a strong run defense that ranks 9th in the nation allowing just 62 yards per game. Star Buckeyes receiver Jeremiah Smith has 2 straight games with 100 yards receiving and tied a career high with 9 receptions last week. Since Day became head coach Ohio State is 23-3 in road games and 20-4 following a bye week. I like the top ranked Buckeyes to frustrate the Washington offense and cover the spread.
Best Bet: Ohio State -7.5 (-110)
Player Props: Jeremiah Smith Over 90.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Arizona @ (14)Iowa State
Unbeaten Big 12 Matchup
Historically, the Big 12 is known for high scoring offenses and lackluster defenses. This contest is the exception, with the Cyclones ranking 22nd in points allowed and Arizona’s defense ranking 6th in the nation in scoring defense. Arizona in particular has been stellar on that side of the ball to start the year allowing opponents to convert on just 22% of third downs, good enough for 8th in the country. Iowa State is a more balanced team, but also a more disciplined team as they average just 27 penalty yards per game compared to Arizona’s 63 yards per contest. Both offenses struggled against worse defenses a week ago as the QB’s struggled with efficiency when passing the ball. The under is a combined 6-1 so far this season in games featuring these 2 teams and I like the point total of 48.5 to go under in this one as well.
Best Bet: Under 48.5 Points (-110)
(17)Alabama @ (5)Georgia
Smart Faces Familiar Foe
Kirby Smart and Georgia won an exhilarating overtime game 44-41 versus Tennessee last time out, but now will host an Alabama team that has dominated the recent head to head meetings. In fact, the Crimson Tide have won 9 out of their last 10 matchups against the Bulldogs straight up. Alabama stumbled out of the gates with a 31-17 loss to FSU, but seemed to have found their footing after a 38-14 demolition of Wisconsin in their last game. Star WR Ryan Williams caught 5 passes for 165 yards and 2 touchdowns in the win and will face a UGA secondary that struggled to limit big plays against Joey Aguliar and Tennessee. The over has hit in all 3 games so far this season in games featuring Alabama and I like the point total to eclipse the 53 mark the oddsmakers have set it at. I also will take Alabama to cover the spread of 3 points as they have been Kirby Smart’s bogey team since his departure for the head coaching job at Georgia.
Best Bet: Over 53 (-110), Alabama +3 (-110)
Player Prop: Ryan Williams Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
(6)Oregon @ (3)Penn State
Big 10 Foes with Big Expectations
The Penn State Nittany Lions last faced the Oregon Ducks in last year’s Big 10 championship game and lost a shootout 45-37. Fresh off a bye week, the Nittany Lions have yet to be tested so far this year with leisurely wins over Villanova, FIU, and Nevada. Likewise, Oregon has yet to allow more than 14 points in each of their 4 wins while averaging 51 points per game. This game has the potential to be an early season Big 10 title preview with both Oregon first year starter Dante Moore and Penn State veteran QB Drew Allar capable of scoring points. Oregon has been spectacular to begin games so far this year scoring touchdowns on all but one of their opening possessions and scoring 8 first quarter touchdowns in total. Moore and the Oregon offense will need to start fast on Saturday night as 100,000 fans will be looking to get loud early and often at Beaver Stadium. The Ducks haven’t allowed a touchdown pass so far this year and have held their opponents to just 120 yards per game. Allar has been somewhat conservative totaling just 10 passing plays of 20 yards or more. I like the Oregon Ducks to visit Penn State and win outright against a team that had sky high expectations to begin the year.
Best Bet: Oregon ML (+140)
Full Card:
Best Bets
- USC -6.5 (-110)
- LSU ML (+100)
- LSUvsMISS Under 56.5 (-110)
- Ohio State -7.5 (-110)
- ARZvsISU Under 48.5 (-110)
- UGAvsALA Over 53 (-110)
- Alabama +3 (-110)
- Oregon ML (+140)
The Bookie of Eli 
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