Recap (Full Card at End)
The 2025-26 college football season is already well underway with contenders separating themselves from the rest of the pack last week. In the marquee matchup of the week Oregon took down 3rd ranked Penn State on the road in a thrilling double overtime game. (21)USC, (5)UGA, and (4)LSU all lost last week to ranked opponents and fell in the rankings this week. (8)FSU was upset by Virginia on Friday night in a dramatic double overtime finish as well. Week 6 brings us a number of major contests that will surely shape the college football playoff at the end of the season. I’ll break down each major matchup giving detailed analysis and insights for the best bets and player props to make on this college football Saturday.
(14)Iowa State @ Cincinnati
The Iowa State Cyclones are 5-0 on the season after taking down Arizona last week 39-14 as 3.5 point favorites. They will face a Cincinnati squad fresh off a thrilling 37-34 win over Kansas as 5.5 point underdogs. Both teams have QB’s playing with confidence with Cyclones’ Rocco Becht averaging 226 pass yards per game and Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby averaging a whopping 262 yards per game to go along with 12 TD’s. The biggest matchup of the game will Sorsby’s dual-threat passing ability against an Iowa State defense that has been using a “bend don’t break” method this season. Even though Iowa State tends to allow some big plays, they are 18th in the country allowing an average of 14.2 points per game. Their discipline has also served them well as the Cyclones are ranked 3rd in the country averaging a measly 22.6 penalty yards per contest. I like Iowa State to continue to hang around late in games so I’ll take them to cover the 2.5 point spread as the road underdogs in this one. However, I am a little worried about Brendan Sorsby’s dual threat ability as he leads the team in both passing and rushing yards so I’ll also take the over in this contest as both teams have strong offenses with less than stellar defenses especially Cincinnati. I also am going to take Iowa State RB Carson Hansen to get over 62.5 rushing yards facing a poor Cincy run defense.
Best Bet: Iowa State +2.5 (-110), Over 55.5 (-110)
Player Prop: Carson Hansen Over 62.5 Rushing Yds (-115)
Kentucky @ (12)Georgia
Georgia were taken down by a familiar foe, Alabama, last Saturday as Gunner Stockton struggled finishing with just 130 yards passing on 20 attempts. The Bulldogs’ rushing attack was their one redeeming factor in that contest as true freshman Chauncey Bowens ran for 119 rushing yards and a touchdown on just 12 carries. Kentucky lost to South Carolina last time out 35-13 with Wildcats QB Cutter Boley throwing for just 124 yards with 2 interceptions. UGA and Kirby Smart are (0-3-1) ATS so far this season and (2-7-1) in their last 10 games going back to last season. The Bulldogs have been under performing for a while now and Kentucky is one of the worst teams in the SEC, particularly on offense so I’ll take the point total of 48.5 to go under in this matchup.
Best Bet: Under 49.5 (-110)
(24)Virginia @ Louisville
An undefeated Louisville team will host 24th ranked Virginia after their upset win over top ten ranked Florida State last week. Virginia’s offense has been humming so far this year averaging an absurd 539.6 yards per game that is currently leading the nation. They boast a balanced attack ranking 3rd in the country in rushing and leading the nation in passing yards per game. They’ll face a Cardinals defense which conceded 27 points to Pitt last week in their first game against quality competition. Louisville is undefeated, but they have not been performing as well as bettors would hope. They are 1-3 ATS on the season while facing inferior opponents such as Bowling Green, James Madison, and Eastern Kentucky. The Cardinals also lack discipline, they rank 123rd in the FBS averaging 75.5 penalties per game and that will be a major difference maker down the stretch. Virginia has one of the best offenses in the country so I’ll take the Cavaliers to cover the 6.5 point spread as the road underdog.
Best Bet: Virginia +6.5 (-110)
(16)Vanderbilt @ (10)Alabama
The undefeated Vanderbilt Commodores travel to Tuscaloosa to take on an Alabama team eager to avenge last season’s loss. A year ago, Vanderbilt took down Alabama 40-35 as 23 point underdogs a loss that put coach Kalen Deboer on the hot seat in his first season. The Crimson Tide seem to have responded well after their season opening loss to Florida State with a 24-21 win against Georgia in Athens last week. Both Vandy’s Diego Pavia and Alabama’s Ty Simpson have been torching defenses with the 2 combining for 30 passing touchdowns and just 4 interceptions. Another area to watch will be Vanderbilt’s run game as they rank 1st in the SEC with 6.49 yards per carry and 18 rushing TD’s in 2025. The Crimson Tide defense hasn’t been particularly strong against the run this year giving up 160.5 yards on the ground per game. I like Vandy to keep it close late and cover the 10.5 point spread as road underdogs in this affair as Vanderbilt and Pavia continue to be thorne in Deboer’s side.
Best Bet: Vanderbilt +11.5 (-115)
(9)Texas @ Florida
The Texas Longhorns and Arch Manning travel to the Swamp in their first real test since their underwhelming 14-7 loss to Ohio State in week 1. The Florida Gators and QB DJ Lagway have been one of the season’s biggest disappointments scoring just 33 total points in their last 3 games. With both teams struggles on offense to begin the season, the under has hit in 7 out of 8 games combined between these 2 squads. The Gators defense has been working overtime to make up for their offensive inefficiency, but last week’s 26-7 loss to Miami seemed to have truly broken their spirits. I like Texas’ defense to lead them to a win and to cover the 5.5 point spread as road favorites. I also like the point total of 42.5 to go under in this contest. Even with the line being so low, based on each team’s offensive performance so far this year, it will be a low scoring game. I also will be targeting Arch Manning to get under 217.5 passing yards in this matchup as the Longhorns will run the ball down the stretch and for all of Florida’s flaws their defense is still strong.
Best Bet: Texas -5.5(-110), Under 42.5 (-110)
Player Prop: Arch Manning Under 217.5 Passing Yds (-115)
(3)Miami @ (18)Florida State
The undefeated Miami Hurricanes and Heisman candidate Carson Beck travel to face Florida State fresh off their double OT loss to Virginia. This will be Miami’s first true road game to start their season. While they have been performing well at home going 3-1 ATS covering in each of their major games against Notre Dame, South Florida, and Florida. The former Bulldog Beck has been a big reason why they have performed above expections averaging 259.2 passing yards per game with 10 TD’s and only 4 INT’s. Florida State brought in their own transfer QB with Tommy Castellanos who flashed his dual threat ability against Alabama in their season opening upset win. Castellanos performed well against Virginia, but ultimately 2 picks were a major factor in his team’s loss. Miami has a strong defense limiting opponents to just 76.2 yards rushing per game good enough for the 8th best in the country. Florida State’s offense has been scoring for fun to begin their season, but they have yet to face a defense as good as Miami’s. I like Miami to cover the 4.5 point spread as road favorites and I also like the point total to go under 54.5 in this contest. A player prop I’m targeting in this matchup is for Carson Beck to get more than 236.5 passing yards facing a leaky Seminoles secondary.
Best Bet: Miami -4.5(-110), Under 54.5 (-110)
Player Prop: Carson Beck Over 236.5 Passing Yds (-115)
Mississippi State @ (6)Texas A&M
Off to a 4-0 start for the first time since 2016, (6)Texas A&M has started their season hot and will welcome Mississippi State after their 41-34 loss to Tennessee ended their undefeated run last week. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS so far this season suggesting they are still one of the nation’s most underrated teams even with the loss. The Aggies took down Jackson Arnold and Auburn last week, but have been failing to cover the spread so far starting the season 1-3 ATS and 2-8 in their last 10 games going back to last season. Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed has come out the gates hot and is a dark horse contender for the Heisman trophy averaging 293.8 yards per game to go along with 13 TD’s. QB Blake Shapen extended his streak of at least one touchdown to 20 games last week despite the loss, the longest active streak in the nation. Shapen has thrown for 1,064 yards and 8 touchdowns already this year. I like Mississippi State to cover the 15.5 point spread on the road as Shapen and the Bulldogs continue to prove the bookies wrong.
Best Bet: Mississippi State +15.5 (-110)
Full Card
Best Bets:
- Iowa State +2.5 (-110)
- ISUvsCIN Over 55.5 (-110)
- UKvsUGA Under 49.5 (-110)
- Virginia +6.5 (-110)
- Vanderbilt +10.5 (-115)
- Texas -5.5 (-110)
- TEXvsUF Under 42.5 (-110)
- Miami -4.5 (-110)
- MIAvsFSU Under 54.5 (-110)
- Mississippi State +15.5 (-110)
Player Props:
- Carson Beck Over 236.5 Passing Yds (-115)
- Carson Hansen Over 62.5 Rushing Yds (-115)
- Arch Manning Under 217.5 Passing Yds (-115)
The Bookie of Eli 
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