Intro (Full Card At End)
Monday Night Football brings us a matchup of the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have bounced back from an 0-2 start winning a pair of games against the Giants and an injured Ravens squad. The Jags have been surprisingly good this year winning 3 of their first 4 games with a 26-21 win over the 49ers last week in San Francisco. Jacksonville is also 3-1 ATS while Kansas City is 2-2 with each team’s totals hitting under twice and over twice this season. The bookies have the Chiefs favored by 3.5 points in this contest, so I’ll take an in depth look at the statistical analysis and historical trends that will help you make the best bets and player props for MNF.
Statistical Analysis & Trends
Kansas City’s offense has not been firing on all cylinders to begin the year ranking 15th in points per game and accruing a meager 332 yards of total offense per contest. Mahomes has been left without playmakers Xavier Worthy for the first 3 games due to injury and Rashee Rice who is still serving a suspension until week 6. The run game hasn’t gotten going yet either, led by Isaiah Pacheco the unit is averaging just 110 rush yards per game. With Worthy back the offense poses a much larger downfield threat, but they will be up against a Jags team that ranks 4th in the NFL in rush yards allowed. The Jaguars have been susceptible to long passes allowing 235 passing yards per game, but have made up for it by intercepting over 2 passes per contest. Offensively the Jags have enjoyed a resurgence from Travis Etienne who rushed for 124 yards versus the 49ers and is 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards with 394 to go along with a league-best 6.1 yards per carry. He will face a Chiefs defense which has been historically good against the run led by Chris Jones, but has been getting pushed around this year surrendering 4.9 yards per rush ranking them 28th in the league in that category.
Reasoning
- I like the Jags to cover the 3.5 point spread as home underdogs primarily due to a strong run defense and the lack of dynamic playmakers for the Chiefs with Rashee Rice still out.
- I like the point total of 45.5 to go under in this contest with the Jags holding Pacheco in check while also leaning on their own rushing attack led by Travis Etienne.
- I’m taking the player props for Pacheco’s rush yards to go under and Etienne’s to go over for the reason mentioned above.
- Lastly, I’m gonna take Hollywood Brown to get under 40.5 receiving yards with Xavier Worthy taking over as the lead receiver in this offense.
The Bookie of Eli 
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