Recap (Full Card At End)
Last week’s college football slate brought us several thrilling games including UCLA’s huge upset over 7th ranked Penn State for their first win of the season. Florida also got back on track taking down 9th ranked Texas and Arch Manning in the Swamp. Alabama exacted revenge for their loss to Vanderbilt a year ago with a dominant 30-14 win over the Commodores this time around. Undefeated Iowa Sate lost a 38-30 shootout to Cincinnati and QB Brendan Sorsby who made quick work of the Cyclones’ defense. 3rd ranked Miami and QB Carson Beck continued their great start to the season defeating 18th ranked in-state rival Florida State 28-22. Week 7 is sure to bring us even more upsets and drama, so I’ve compiled all the best bets based on statistical analysis and historical trends for this weekend’s games.
(7)Indiana @ (3)Oregon
Undoubtedly the marquee matchup of the week, this contest features a pair of undefeated Big Ten teams with playoff hopes coming off bye weeks. Indiana has taken care of business so far this year dismantling Illinois 63-10 in week 5 before a grind it out victory over Iowa 20-15 last week. The Hoosiers are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 outings and the over has hit in 3 out of 4 as well. Oregon has looked like the best team in the country, going to Happy Valley and defeating Penn State 30-24 in overtime before a bye week allowed them some time to rest before this game. Both teams boast elite defenses with Oregon ranking 3rd in the nation allowing only 123.4 passing yards per game and Indiana giving up just 9.6 points per game good enough for 3rd in the country. Indiana averages a ridiculous 267.8 rush yards per game and has a committee of RB’s that can threaten any team. Oregon’s offense has a similar approach ranking 8th with 6.3 yards per rush while Indiana’s defense is strong against the pass allowing just 8.9 yards per completion good enough for 3rd in the nation. So both offenses are strong with elite run games and both defenses have also been strong with elite pass defenses on both sides. I like the under in this contest with both teams leaning on their running games and bleeding the clock as passing yards will come at a premium in this one. I also like the player prop for Fernando Mendoza to get under 229.5 passing yards as the Ducks clamp down on the Hoosiers’ passing attack.
Best Bet: Under 55.5 (-110)
Player Prop: Mendoza Under 229.5 Passing Yds (-110)
(8)Alabama @ (14)Missouri
The undefeated Missouri Tigers face their toughest test of the season as the Crimson Tide travel for an SEC game in Columbia, Mo. Alabama and QB Ty Simpson have bounced back from their season opening loss to FSU with back-to-back ranked wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt. Simpson was essential in both wins passing for a pair of TD’s in both contests. He will face a Tiger’s defense that has been elite to begin their season leading the nation in rush yards allowed per game and 2nd in overall yards allowed. A big part of that has been their schedule as South Carolina and Kansas are by far the best team they’ve faced. Alabama’s defense has been uncharacteristically leaky on the ground, but is still keeping opponents out of the end zone surrendering just 16 points per contest. Missouri does have a strong running lead by Ahmed Hardy that averages 292 rush yards per game so I like Hardy to score in this one and the Missouri Tigers to win outright as home underdogs.
Best Bet: Missouri ML (+140)
Player Prop: Ahmed Hardy TD (-150)
(1)Ohio State @ (17)Illinois
The top ranked team in the nation Ohio State Buckeyes will visit Memorial Stadium for a matchup against the Illinois fighting Illini as a 2 TD favorite. Ohio State’s defense has looked like one of the best units in recent college football history not allowing a single opponent to get to double digits through 5 games. They will face Luke Altmyer and an Illinois passing attack that could pose a threat to that record. Outside of a terrible performance against Indiana in week 4, Altmyer has looked fantastic tossing for over 700 yards in his last 2 appearances combined. Julian Sayin and Ohio State’s offense has been efficient with Sayin leading the nation in completion percentage and he will face a Illinois defense that has shown that it has taken a step back from a year ago. Even with the Buckeye’s shutdown defense, I like both these offense to put up points so I’ll take the point total of 49.5 to go over in this encounter.
Best Bet: Over 49.5 (-110)
(6)Oklahoma @ Texas
The Texas Longhorns lost all their hype last week with a terrible offensive performance at the Swamp in a 29-21 loss. QB Arch Manning has struggled mightily in their big games this year failing to complete more than 57% of his passes in their losses to Florida or Ohio State. He will now have to face a Sooners defense that ranks 1st in the nation in yards allowed per game and per play. A big story entering this game will be the health of Oklahoma QB John Mateer who is questionable with a thumb injury. Freshman Michael Hawkins Jr would be the replacement if Mateer is not able to suit up which would obviously be a huge loss for Brent Venables and the Oklahoma Sooners. Texas’ defense is strong in their own right, despite the losses to Florida and Ohio State. There is a possibility that they may be without star CB Malik Muhammed who missed his last game with an injury, which would be a major loss for the Longhorns defense. This pick is entirely based upon the fact that I think Mateer will play in this Red River Rivalry game so I’ll take the Sooners to win outright at the Cotton Bowl.
Best Bet: Oklahoma ML (-110)
(10)Georgia @ Auburn
The Georgia Bulldogs will meet the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium riding an 8 game win streak in the head to head series between the SEC rivals. Gunner Stockton and the bulldogs took care of business last week against Kentucky 35-14 recovering from their humbling 24-21 home defeat to the Crimson Tide the week before. Auburn has suffered back to back defeats with the offense being the primary issue as Jackson Arnold continues to struggle, averaging just 173 yards through the air per game. Arnold has had a serious problem with holding on to the ball for too long with teams averaging over 4 sacks per game against him this year. Once again this is an instance of a good defense being hung out to dry by a bad offense similar to Texas, so I think this matchup will be an ugly affair where points come at a premium. I also like Georgia’s rushing attack led by true freshman Chauncey Bowens to be the difference maker that will make it 9 wins in a row for the Bulldogs in the series and cover the 3.5 point spread.
Best Bet: UGA -3.5 (-110), Under 46.5 (-105)
Player Prop: Chauncey Bowens Over 51.5 Rushing Yds (-110)
Florida @ (5)Texas A&M
Florida’s celebration for its big win over then 9th ranked Texas that snapped a 3 game skid will be short-lived as they travel Kyle Field to face the 5th ranked Texas A&M Aggies. QB Marcel Reed and the Aggies are undefeated and looked every bit the favorite in their 31-9 win over Mississippi State last week. Reed has played exceptionally well totaling 1,256 yards to go along with 11 TD’s through 5 games. WR Mario Craver has been his favorite target averaging a mind boggling 111 receiving yards per game so far this season as well as 5 TD’s. Florida’s QB DJ Lagway entered the season with high expectations, but has had an up and down start highlighted by a 5 INT performance against LSU in week 3 although he did throw for nearly 300 yards against Texas last week. Texas A&M’s defense led by DE Cashius Howell does a great job of getting after the QB averaging 3.6 sacks per game good enough for 6th in the nation. I think Texas A&M is a serious contender in the SEC and will be able to handle Florida at home, but I do think Florida’s offense has recovered and should be able to put up some points late so I’ll also take the over.
Best Bet: Texas A&M -7.5 (-110), Over 46 (-115)
Full Card
Best Bets:
- INDvsORE Under 55.5 (-150)
- Missouri ML (+140)
- OSUvsILL Over 49.5 (-130)
- Oklahoma ML (-115)
- UGA -3.5 (-110)
- UGAvsAUB Under 46.5 (-110)
- Texas A&M -7.5 (-110)
- UFvsTAM Over 46.5 (-130)
Player Props:
- Mendoza Under 229.5 Passing Yds (-110)
- Ahmed Hardy TD (-150)
- Chauncey Bowens Over 51.5 Rushing Yds (-110)
The Bookie of Eli 
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