Intro (Full Card At End)
We already had a classic Thursday night matchup between the Steelers and the Bengals that ended in a 33-31 upset win for Cincinnati. Veteran QB’s Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers turned back the clock and combined for 591 passing yards and 7 TD’s. Hopefully Sunday’s slate will bring us the same level of excitement as we have fantastic matchups throughout the day. I’ll break down each game and provide betting insights based on statistical analysis and trends that will help you make the best bets this Sunday!
Rams vs Jaguars (London)
For the 3rd week in a row an NFL game will take place in London this time at Wembley Stadium. The Los Angeles Rams will face the Jacksonville Jaguars with both teams sitting at 4-2. The Rams took down the Ravens in an ugly 17-3 win last week, while the Jags lost to the Seahawks 20-12 ending a 3 game win streak. The Rams have one of the best passing offenses in the NFL ranking 3rd in pass yards per game at 269.2, but will be without their best WR as Puka Nacua has been ruled out with an ankle injury. The Jags defense has been strong against the run this year allowing just 91.5 yards per game and held the Seahawks to 60 rush yards in their last contest. The Jaguars offense has been strong on the ground led by a resurgent Travis Etienne who has already amassed 470 rushing yards on 5.3 yards per carry in 6 games this year. He will face an elite Rams defense that ranks 3rd in the league allowing just 18.3 points per game and averages 3.2 sacks per contest. This is an interesting matchup between 2 playoff contenders. With Nacua out, I like the defenses in this international matchup so I’ll be targeting the point total of 44.5 to go under. I also like Davante Adams to be targeted early and often in this one so I’ll be taking the over on his line of 6.5 receptions.
Best Bet: Under 44.5 (+105)
Player Prop: Davante Adams Over 6.5 Rec (-110)
Patriots @ Titans
Mike Vrabel makes his return to Nashville as head coach of the 4-2 New England Patriots flying high after a 3 game win streak. The Titans have been abysmal, winning just 1 out of their first 6 games and 1 out of 10 going back to last season. The Titans have been poor on both offense and defense so far this year ranking 26th in points allowed with 26.8 per game and only scoring 13.8 points per contest second worst in the league. Rookie QB Cam Ward has been getting harassed with defenses averaging 4.2 sacks for 33 yards, worst in the NFL, against the Titans. The Patriots don’t particularly have a strong pass rush, but they are strong against the run holding opposing offenses to just 3.5 yards per carry. They also keep teams out of the endzone allowing only 20 points per contest good enough for 8th in the league. Offensively it has been the Drake Maye show for the Patriots with the 2nd year QB completing a ridiculous 72.8% of his passes this season. He will face a Titans defense that is not good at anything except defending the pass as the Titans, despite all their flaws, allow just 209.7 air yards per game. I like the Patriots to cover as 5.5 road favorites in this one as the Titans have simply been a dumpster fire.
Best Bet: Patriots -5.5 (-130)
Dolphins @ Browns
2 teams with only 1 win so far this year will meet as the Miami Dolphins visit the Cleveland Browns. The Browns have the worst scoring offense in the NFL with just 13.7 points per game and will start rookie QB Dillon Gabriel for the 3rd straight game. Gabriel’s performances have been less than stellar with the rookie completing less than 58% of his passes in both contests, but he has avoided picks with 2 TD’s and no INT’s. The Dolphins defense has been poor to say the least allowing 29 points and 389.3 yards per contest which has them ranked 30th in the league. Miami’s offense has actually done well this year especially considering star WR Tyreek Hill’s injury in week 4. They have scored at least 24 points in each of their last 3 games and the total has gone over in 5 straight Dolphins games. QB Tua Tagovailoa ranks 8th in the NFL with a 69.6% completion and TE Darren Waller has emerged as a top target and has averaged 5.7 targets per game as well as contributing to 25% of his team’s passing yards. I like the point total of 35 to go over as the Dolphins have a porous defense and are good enough to scrounge some points on offense. I also like Darren Waller to have over 24.5 receiving yards for the reasons mentioned above.
Best Bet: Over 35 (+100)
Player Prop: Darren Waller Over 24.5 Receiving Yds (-130)
Eagles @ Vikings
Another “revenge game” as Carson Wentz and the Vikings host the Eagles with the defending Super Bowl champions on a 2 game losing streak following their upset 34-17 loss to the Giants. The Eagles have struggled to score points as of late with just 17 points in each of those losses and a big part has been their run game or lack thereof. Saqoun Barkley has been largely ineffective this year following his historic 2024 campaign and the Eagles are averaging just 95.3 rush yards and 3.5 yards per carry a steep regression from last season. The Vikings have an elite pass defense ranking inside the top 5 in pass yards allowed, completions and yards per completion. Their run defense has been suspect though allowing 132 yards per contest, although they have kept opponents out of the end zone allowing just 19.4 points per game good enough for 5th in the league. On offense, Carson Wentz will start for the 4th straight game and has outperformed his predecessor JJ McCarthy completing over 70% of his passes in 2 out of 3 weeks both leading to wins. The Eagles defense has under-performed as well this year struggling against the run allowing 134.3 rush yards per game and 4.7 yards per rush. Their pass defense has been significantly better though ranking 4th in completion rate with 58.9% allowed. If the Eagles lose this game there will be some serious questions asked of head coach Nick Sirianni and the Eagles offense. I like the Eagles to bounce back in a buy low spot and cover the 1.5 point spread as favorites.
Best Bet: Eagles -1.5 (-110)
Colts @ Chargers
The Indianapolis Colts will travel to Los Angeles boasting the best record in the AFC following a 31-27 win over the Arizona Cardinals last week. QB Daniel Jones has been a revelation for the Colts offense averaging 247.8 pass yards per game and complimenting star RB Jonathan Taylor beautifully. The Chargers won their last game 29-27 against the Dolphins rebounding from a 2 game losing streak. The had been struggling since Omarion Hampton went to IR with an ankle injury, but the leaky Dolphins defense provided the perfect opponent for their offense to get back on track. The Chargers defense is excellent at everything except the run allowing 5 yards per rush ranking them 28th in the league. They will have their hands full with Taylor who currently leads the league in rushing yards with 603. I don’t think the Chargers are a bad team, but they do not have a replacement for Hampton and the Colts are the best team in the AFC until proven otherwise. Therefore I’ll take the Colts and Daniel Jones to win outright in this road game at LA. I also like Jonathan Taylor to get over 88.5 rushing yards facing a leaky run defense.
Best Bet: Colts ML (+120)
Player Prop: Jonathan Taylor Over 88.5 Rush Yds (-110)
Commanders @ Cowboys
Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders will visit the Dallas Cowboys in an NFC East matchup of 2 teams with high powered offenses and less than stellar defenses. The Commanders lead the NFL with 5.5 yards per rush behind the play of rookie RB Jacory Croskey-Meritt and will face one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Cowboys have given up a league-worst 411.7 yards per game and opposing QB’s have averaged a 114.9 QB rating against them also worst in the league. The Commanders are averaging 26.3 points per game while the Cowboys defense is allowing 30.7 points on average second worst in the NFL. Dak Prescott has looked terrific so far this season and leads the league in completions per contest and has led the Cowboys to top 3 rankings in both total yards and scoring so far this year. The Commanders are not quite as bad as the Cowboys on defense, but have adopted a “bend don’t break” style that has them 25th in yards allowed while only allowing 21 points per game. This has the potential to be a shootout and the oddsmakers set the total at a ridiculous 53.5 points. However, I’m going to go with the Commanders to win this NFC East matchup as that total is too high to bet the over and the Cowboys defense is awful.
Best Bet: Commanders ML (+105)
Falcons @ 49ers
The Atlanta Falcons will travel across the country to face the San Francisco 49ers for a Sunday Night Football matchup following their win over the Bills 24-14 last week. The 49ers fell victim to Baker Mayfield and the Bucs in a 30-19 road loss a week ago although backup QB Mac Jones continued to move the ball with accuracy in his 4th start of the season. Brock Purdy will miss this week again with a toe injury, but the 49ers will welcome back TE George Kittle this week who is a major difference maker when healthy. Jones will face a Falcons defense that is one of the best against the pass holding opponents to only 139.4 passing yards per contest. The Falcons have been susceptible to the run, but the 49ers rush offense has been nonexistent with star RB Christian McCaffrey playing the role of pass catcher more often than not. On offense the Falcons have a star RB of their own in Bijan Robinson as they lead the league with 378.8 total yards per game and 151.2 rush yards on average. The 49ers are pedestrian on defense getting decimated by injuries to Fred Warner and Nick Bosa. Even though the Falcons are traveling across the country, I like Robinson and the Falcons to get their 3rd straight win following a horrific 30-0 week 4 loss to the Panthers.
Best Bet: Falcons ML (+120)
Full Card
Best Bets:
- LARvsJAX Under 44.5 (+105)
- Patriots -5.5 (-130)
- MIAvsCLE Over 35 (+100)
- Eagles -1.5 (-110)
- Colts ML (+120)
- Commanders ML (+105)
- Falcons ML (+120)
Player Props:
- Davante Adams Over 6.5 Rec (-110)
- Darren Waller Over 24.5 Rec Yds (-130)
- Jonathan Taylor Over 88.5 Rush Yds (-110)
The Bookie of Eli 
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