Intro
We just had a fantastic Sunday on our best bets winning 5 out of 7 and tonight the NFL brings us a pair of competitive matchups. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs have only lost 1 game so far this season against the Eagles in week 4 and they will visit the 4-2 Detroit Lions fresh off a loss to the Chiefs last week 30-17. As if that isn’t enough, the 4-2 Seattle Seahawks will host CJ Stroud and the 2-3 Texans who are on a 2 game win streak after starting the season 0-3. I’ll break down both games using statistical analysis and historical trends so that you can make the best bets tonight.
Buccaneers @ Lions
The Bucs took down the 49ers in their last game 30-19 behind Baker Mayfield’s 256 passing yards and 2 passing TD’s. Mayfield is a top contender for the MVP with (+320) odds currently putting him only behind Patrick Mahomes. The Lions are favored by 6.5 points at home in this matchup with the points total set at 53.5. Detroit is 2-0 so far this season at home, but will be without safety Brian Branch who was handed a 1 game suspenion following a postgame altercation with Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster last Sunday night. The Lions already had a depleted secondary with DB’s DJ Reed, Kerby Joseph, and Terrion Arnold missing Thursday’s practice due to injury. The Bucs are dealing with their own injury issues as WR Chris Godwin is out and Emeka Egbuka didn’t practice either. However, Mayfield will have veteran WR Mike Evans who returned to practice this week after missing the last 3 games with a hamstring injury. Tampa Bay recorded its first 4 wins by a total of 9 points while the Lions averaged 40.3 points per game during their 4 game winning streak before their loss to the Chiefs last week. This is a matchup of 2 teams with playoff hopes and I think Baker and the Bucs will take advantage of a depleted Lions secondary so I’ll take the Bucs to cover as 6.5 point underdogs on the road. I also like Baker Mayfield to get over 241.5 passing yards as the Lions gave up 244.5 air yards per game even before the injuries and suspension for Branch.
Best Bet: Bucs +6.5 (-120)
Player Prop: Baker Mayfield Over 241.5 Pass Yds (-120)
Texans @ Seahawks
The Houston Texans travel to Seattle riding a 2 game winning streak to face a Seahawks team that beat the Jaguars 20-12 in their last game. Seattle’s defense limited the Jags to just 273 yards of total offense and sacked Trevor Lawrence 7 times in the win. Sam Darnold has looked just as efficiently as he did last season with the Vikings and owns the 3rd best passer rating in the NFL with 116. Texans QB CJ Stroud was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week after his 4 TD performance against the Ravens last week. The Texans are coming off their bye week and will hope to continue their rebound after losing their first 3 games of the season by one score. The Seahawks defense has been susceptible to the passes as they are 31st in the league allowing 26.2 completions per game to opposing teams. The Texans have been elite on defense in every facet allowing just 12.2 points per game the best mark in the NFL. This is a matchup that projects to be low scoring and tight so I’ll take the Texans +3.5 as their offense is trending in the right direction and their defense has been playing well all season. I also like Sam Darnold to get over 4.5 rushing yards as the Texans gave up 33 rush yards to Baker Mayfield and 22 rush yards to Cam Ward.
The Bookie of Eli 
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