Recap (Full Card At End)
Last week we went 5-2 on our best bets for the NFL and 3-1 on Thursday Night Football! We also had arguably the game of the year when the Denver Broncos scored 33 points in the 4th quarter to win against the Giants 33-32. Drake Maye and the Patriots have taken the AFC East by storm leading the division with a 5-2 record. Daniel Jones and the Colts boast the best record in the AFC with only 1 loss in 7 games as they have been scoring at will against opponents. The NFC has more parity with only the Saints failing to win at least 2 games, however the Eagles looked back to their old selves this past week as Jalen Hurts passed for 326 yards and 3 TD’s in a 28-22 win against the Vikings. Other than the Vikings, the rest of the NFC North won their games and with another loss on Thursday Night Football this week they are in real danger of getting left behind in a strong division. The Bucs lost last week to the Lions 24-9 falling to 5-2 on the season while a trio of NFC West teams in the 49ers, Seahawks, and Rams moved to 5-2 as well with a win last week. I’ll break down this weeks slate using statistical analysis and historical trends so that you can make the best bets this Sunday!
Jets @ Bengals
The Jets are still the only team in the NFL to not win a game and had arguably their ugliest loss last week as they managed just 2 field goals in a 13-6 loss to the Panthers. QB Justin Fields completed just 6 of 12 passes for 46 yards before being benched in the 3rd quarter for backup Tyrod Taylor who didn’t look much better. Taylor sustained a knee injury in the loss and has been a limited participant in practice all week usually a sign that a player is not going to play. Whichever QB starts they will face a porous Bengals defense that has allowed at least 27 points in 6 straight weeks since week 1. They won a shootout last week against the Steelers 33-31 behind Joe Flacco’s 342 passing yards and 3 TD’s. The Jets are a dumpster fire on both sides of the ball right now, while Flacco and the Bengals have the offense looking renewed. I’ll take the Bengals as 5.5 point favorites at home in an ugly matchup against the Jets dysfunctional offense. I also like Bengals RB Chase Brown to get over 55.5 rush yards. The Jets run defense is giving up 132 yards per game to opponents the 8th worst mark in the NFL and the game script should be in his favor.
Best Bet: Bengals -5.5 (-110)
Player Prop: Chase Brown Over 55.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Bears @ Ravens
The Ravens have been decimated by injury this season, but could return Lamar Jackson this week who did practice although in a limited fashion. Backup Cooper Rush has not done well since Lamar suffered a hamstring injury in week 4 throwing 4 picks and no TD’s in 2 games. The Ravens have only 1 win through 6 games played this year and are desperate for Jackson’s return. The visiting Chicago Bears enter this matchup winning 4 games in a row and the offense has been leading the way scoring at least 25 points in each of those victories. The defense has been strong as well holding opponents to 19 points per game during their streak. The Ravens have the worst scoring defense in the NFL allowing 32.3 points per game and the Bears offense is in flow right now so I’ll take the Bears to win this game outright in Baltimore.
Best Bet: Bears ML (+255)
Bills @ Panthers
The Bills will enter this game having lost 2 straight before they had a bye week last week, while the Panthers have won 3 games in a row and are above .500 for the first time since 2021. Unfortunately for the Panthers, Bryce Young will miss this week with an ankle injury and they will have to rely on QB Andy Dalton to carry the load offensively. Josh Allen has never lost 3 straight games as a starter and the Bills are 8-0 in games following a bye week since 2017. The one thing the Panthers do have is a strong rushing attack with the emergence of former Cowboy Rico Dowdle in Chubba Hubbard’s absence. Hubbard is healthy now and the duo will face a Bills defense which is allowing 5.8 yards per carry, the most in the NFL. I like the Bills to cover as 7 point away favorites, but I also like Rico Dowdle to get over 50.5 rush yards for the reason mentioned above.
Best Bet: Bills -7 (-110)
Player Prop: Rico Dowdle Over 50.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Bucs @ Saints
Baker Mayfield and the Bucs lost to the Lions last week 24-9 and lost veteran WR Mike Evans to a clavicle injury that will sideline him for possibly the whole season. The Saints have just 1 win in their last 10 games going back to last season and lost last week to the Bears in Chicago 26-14 to fall to 1-6. The under has hit in 3 straight games that the Saints have played in with their offense struggling. Last week the Saints managed just 44 yards rushing on 17 carries and QB Spencer Rattler and threw 3 INT’s in the loss. Both teams are coming off their worst offensive performances of the season, but the Bucs do have a strong run defense allowing just 3.9 yards per rush 8th best in the NFL. They’re also averaging nearly 3 sacks per game that is good enough for 7th best in the league. The Saints have actually been halfway decent on defense, but their offense has done them no favors constantly gifting the opposing team good field position. I like the Bucs to cover the 3.5 point spread as road favorites primarily because of how poorly Rattler and the offense has performed. However, I also think this will be an ugly low scoring game so I’ll take the point total of 47 to go under.
Best Bets: Bucs -3.5 (-110), Under 47 (-110)
Cowboys @ Broncos
Bo Nix and the Broncos won a ridiculous game last week where they scored 33 points in the 4th quarter to secure the comeback win on a last second field goal against the Giants. Meanwhile, the Cowboys ran the score up against the Commanders in a 44-22 win versus their division rival. The over has hit in 4 straight games that the Cowboys have played in and with star WR Ceedee Lamb back from an ankle injury, they looked unstoppable offensively last week. QB Dak Prescott is quietly having an MVP level season averaging 274.6 pass yards per game to go along with 14 TD’s and only 3 INT’s. This matchup will be strength on strength as the Broncos lead the league averaging a mind-blowing 4.9 sacks per contest. They also hold opponents to just 18.1 points per game a stark difference from the 31.7 points the Cowboys offense has averaged this season. Defensively the Cowboys have been straight up bad giving up the most yards in the NFL with 401.6 per game. The Broncos have been comeback merchants in their past 3 games, but haven’t faced an offense even close to as good as the Cowboys so I like the Cowboys to cover as 3.5 road underdogs.
Best Bet: Cowboys +3.5 (-110)
Packers @ Steelers
The primetime matchup this week has Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers hosting his old team as the Green Bay Packers travel to Pittsburgh. Rodgers has looked rejuvenated for the Steelers completing 68.6% of his passes for 1,270 yards and 14 TD’s. He will face off with his replacement Jordan Love who has thrown for 1,438 yards to go along with 10 TD’s and only 2 INT’s. The Packers took down the Cardinals 27-23 on the road last week and DE Micah Parsons looked unstoppable posting a career-high 3 sacks. Pittsburgh lost to the Bengals 33-31 in a shootout on Thrusday Night Football and their defense has allowed 30 or more points 3 times this season. Head to head the Steelers have won 6 of their past 7 regular season meetings with the Packers. This is an Aaron Rodgers revenge game so I’m gonna take the Steelers to win this game outright as home underdogs in this matchup. I also am going to go with DK Metcalf to get over 54.5 receiving yards as he has by far the best big play ability out of the Steelers playmakers.
Best Bet: Steelers ML (+160)
Player Prop: DK Metcalf Over 54.5 Rec Yds (-110)
Best Bets:
- Bengals -5.5 (-110)
- Bears ML (+255)
- Bills -7 (-110)
- Bucs -3.5 (-110)
- Under 47 (-110)
- Cowboys +3.5 (-110)
- Steelers ML (+160)
Player Props:
- Chase Brown Over 55.5 Rush Yds (-115)
- Rico Dowdle Over 50.5 Rush Yds (-115)
- DK Metcalf Over 54.5 Rec Yds (-110)
The Bookie of Eli 
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