(Picks At End)
Intro
We just went 6-4 on our NFL picks including a 3-0 sweep for player props and an incredible 6-0 when including college football player props. A $10 bet on a parlay of those 6 props would have paid out $609! We are really starting to heat up in both NFL and CFB picks and anyone trailing is raking it in right now. I’m going to break down tonight’s matchup of the Washington Commanders and the Kansas City Chiefs using statistical analysis so that you can make the sharpest NFL bets and player props!
Team Form
The Commanders have lost 3 out of their last 4 and saw Jayden Daniels limp off the field with a hamstring injury in a 44-22 loss to the Cowboys last week. Backup Marcus Mariota will start in his place tonight with the Commanders hoping to avoid a 3-5 start to their season. That will be a tough task with a primetime matchup at Arrowhead Stadium coming up tonight. The Chiefs look healthier by the week as WR Xavier Worthy is now 100% and the return of WR Rashee Rice from a 6 game suspension was the cherry on top as he scored twice last week. Mahomes threw for 286 yards and 3 scores before sitting out the entire 4th quarter of a 31-0 win over the Raiders. Kansas City has won 4 straight in the series with the last meeting between these 2 franchises coming in 2021.
Statistical Analysis
The Commanders defense has been struggling against big plays giving up 6.1 yards per play, 28th in the NFL, and a league-worst 7.8 yards per pass attempt. They have given up a league leading 8 pass plays of at least 40 yards including one to CeeDee Lamb last week for a TD. Washington has also started games slowly falling into double-digit first half deficits in 5 of its first 7 games while having a 1-4 record in those games. They are giving up a putrid 7.6 points per 1st quarter, the second most allowed in the NFL. The Chiefs have been scoring at will recently averaging 31.5 over their past 4 games with a 3-1 record in that span. Mahomes has been leading the way with 6 TD’s and 0 INT’s in his past 3 games completing at least 73.3% of his passes in both weeks.
Picks & Reasoning
All signs point towards a comfortable Chiefs win behind Mahomes and Rice against a porous Commanders pass defense. With Daniels out the line has rightfully ballooned to 10.5 points in favor of Kansas City. I like the Chiefs against a backup QB and a struggling defense at home in this matchup so I’m going to go with the alternate line of 9.5 points in favor of the Chiefs. There are a few player props I’ll be targeting with my favorite being Isiah Pacheco to score a TD with the Chiefs getting plenty of opportunities at the goal line and Pacheco in need of a boost against an inferior opponent. I also like Commanders RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt to get over 6.5 receiving yards as Mariota is much more likely to take the checkdown to the RB and will be throwing a lot. Finally, I like Marcus Mariota to get over 18.5 pass completions with the only chink in the Chiefs armor being their pass defense which has allowed a 75.8% completion rate to opposing teams the worst in the league.
The Bookie of Eli 
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