Recap/Intro (Full Card At End)
Last week we had a number of games that came down to the wire beginning the day with Virginia winning their 3rd overtime game of the season holding North Carolina inches short of the endzone. Not to be outdone, Texas got a huge win for their playoff hopes as the Longhorns completed their comeback in overtime. Finally, a final play hail mary caught and stopped at the 1 yard line was just enough for the Commodores to get their 7th win of the season. Those 2 teams, Texas and Vandy will square off this week at Texas Memorial Stadium for the marquee matchup of the week only rivaled by Oklahoma visiting Tennessee. At the end of the night a fantastic matchup between a pair of ranked Big 12 contenders between Cincinnati and Utah. I’ll break down each of these major matchups as well as a few others using statistical analysis and historical trends so that you can make the best bets for week 10 of the college football season!
(9)Vanderbilt @ (20)Texas
Texas returns home from a month-long road trip to host the 9th ranked Commodores in a game with major SEC and CFP implications. Last week the Longhorns got a clutch punt return TD by Ryan Niblett and Arch Manning’s best college performance so far to complete a 17 point comeback with less than 10 minutes remaining. Manning was concussed on the first play of overtime in the 45-38 win over Mississippi State and backup Matthew Caldwell threw the game winning pass. Caldwell could be the starter against a Vanderbilt team that has won back-to-back games against opponents ranked in the top 15. QB Diego Pavia struggled in the win over 15th ranked Missouri last week posting season lows in both passing yards and rushing yards. However, their defense is legit leading this squad to their first 7-1 start since 1941 and a school record 7 wins before November. Both teams boast top level defenses and with Manning’s health in question I’m going to take the point total of 47.5 points to go under.
Best Bet: Under 47.5 (-115)
(5)Georgia vs Florida (Jacksonville)
The “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” takes place this Saturday with the both teams coming off bye weeks after big wins. The Bulldogs took down the top 10 Ole Miss Rebels at home 43-35 once again coming from behind in the 2nd half. While Florida held off a solid Mississippi State squad 23-21 that gave Texas all they could handle the next week. Billy Napier was dismissed as Florida’s head coach one day after that victory and receiver coach Billy Gonzales will make his debut as the interim coach. Georgia has won 4 straight games in the series and 7 of the past 8 overall. QB Gunner Stockton has been getting better each game accounting for 17 TD’s including 5 in their last game against Ole Miss. Florida QB DJ Lagway entered the season with sky high expectation, but has thrown the same number of INT’s (9) as TD passes. On the bright side for the Florida offense RB Jadan Baugh rushed for a career-best 150 yards in their win. The Bulldogs have been strong against the run holding opponents to 91.1 rush ypg (12th) while being vulnerable to the pass primarily to a poor pass rush that is barely averaging 1 sack per game. The Bulldogs have been living life on the edge all season and Florida is trending upward so I’ll take the Gators to cover the 7.5 point spread as underdogs on a neutral site.
Best Bet: Florida +7.5 (-115)
(13)Texas Tech @ Kansas State
Texas Tech is 7-1 and coming off a 42-0 home victory over Oklahoma State last Saturday and will get back QB Behren Morton who missed their last 2 games with a lower body injury. The Kansas State Wildcats have been up and down this year, but have won 2 straight games resoundingly including their 42-17 win over Kansas last Saturday. QB Avery Johnson has averaged 235 passing yards with 9 TD’s and 1 INT in his last 4 games as well as 3 TD’s on the ground. Kansas State has covered the spread in 4 straight games with the points total going over in all of those contests. Texas Tech is loaded on both sides of the football scoring 43.6 points per game and allowing only 12.4 points both 4th best in the nation. David Bailey is leading the country in sacks with 10.5 through 9 weeks and with Morton back for the Red Raiders I like them to cover the 6.5 point spread as road favorites in this Big 12 matchup. I also like the total to go over 52.5 points with Kansas State’s offense led by Avery Johnson has started to heat up and Texas Tech hasn’t been stopped all year offensively.
Best Bet: Texas Tech -6.5 (-140), Over 52.5 (-110)
(8)Georgia Tech @ North Carolina State
Georgia Tech has had a dream start to their season taking an unbeaten record into Raleigh for an ACC faceoff with NC State. A win this week would match the program’s longest single-season winning streak since beginning 9-0 in 1966. A 41-16 victory over Syracuse last week was once again powered by Haynes King who threw 3 TD’s and ran for 2 more on Saturday. NC State is 4-4 hoping to play spoiler to the Yellow Jacket’s perfect season, but have dropped 4 of their past 5 games entering this matchup. The Wolfpack’s only win since Sept 11th was against FCS opponent Campbell and their schedule won’t get easier as they have Miami following this week. NC State has been giving up an average of 29.9 points per game and the Yellow Jackets offense has been scoring 36 points per game so I like Georgia Tech to cover the 5.5 point spread and continue their unbeaten run.
Best Bet: Georgia Tech -5.5 (-110)
(18)Oklahoma @ (14)Tennessee
The Oklahoma Sooner lost to Ole Miss last week 34-26 at home and will travel to Knoxvill for a matchup with the Tennessee Volunteers following their 56-34 shootout win against Kentucky in their last game. The Volunteers enter this game 2nd nationally in points per game with 45.6 and 3rd in total offense with an average of 510.1 yards per game. They are led by QB Joey Aguilar has already thrown for 2,344 yards and 18 TD’s with only 6 INT’s. This will be a matchup of strength on strength as the Sooners defense is first in yards allowed and pass yards allowed while only conceding 12.5 points per game (5th). In this matchup of SEC teams I’ll take the better defense on the road to win outright against an unbalanced Tennessee team.
Best Bet: Oklahoma ML (+120)
(17)Cincinnati @ (24)Utah
The Bearcats have reeled off 7 wins in a row since their week 1 loss to Nebraska and have covered in all but 2 of their games this year. QB Brendan Sorsby has quietly been putting up Heisman number averigang 283.5 pass ypg and will face a Utah defense which ranks 7th in the country against the pass giving up only 148.8 ypg. The Utes blew out Colorado last week 53-7 a good response after their 24-21 loss to BYU the previous week. Cincinnati will be without their leading rusher Evan Pryor has already been ruled out with an undisclosed injury so there will be even more pressure on Sorsby against a strong defense.However, I like Cincinnati to cover the spread as it is just way too many points so I’ll take the Bearcats to cover as 10 point underdogs on the road.
Best Bet: Cincinnati +10 (-100)
Best Bets:
- VANvsTEX Under 47.5 (-115)
- Florida +7.5 (-115)
- Texas Tech -6.5 (-140)
- TTUvsKSU Over 52.5 (-110)
- Georgia Tech -5.5 (-110)
- Oklahoma ML (+120)
- Cincinnati +10 (-100)
The Bookie of Eli 
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