Recap/Intro (Full Card At End)
Last week the Jets got their first win of the season with a 39-38 comeback victory over the Bengals. The Colts and Patriots continued to roll in the AFC as they both had convincing wins. The Ravens without Lamar Jackson upset the Bears in a major game for their season getting just their 2nd win of the season. Most of the games were blowouts with the favorites winning such as the Packers, Broncos, Bucs, Bills, and Eagles.This week brings us an absolute jam packed slate of games with the only 4 teams on bye this week. I’ll break down the best bets to make this Sunday using statistical analysis and historical trends.
Falcons @ Patriots
The upstart Patriots and Drake Maye are riding their longest winning streak in 4 years with 5 wins in a row. Maye has thrown 10 TD’s and just 1 INT in that span and will face a Falcons team which fell to the Dolphins 34-10 without Michael Penix. Star WR Drake London as well as Penix, Kyle Pitts and Jessie Bates were all listed as limited participants in practice Wednesday and Thursday so it is uncertain if they’ll suit up on Sunday. Even with the banged up offense this Falcons defense is incredibly strong especially in the secondary holding opponents to just 149.1 pass yards per game. Drakr Maye is operating with high efficiency, but the Patriots have opted for a run first approach on offense attempting the 7th most rushes per game while averaging only 3.9 yards per rush (25th). This projects to be an ugly offensive game with the Patriots outlasting the less than 100% healthy Falcons.
Best Bet: Under 47 (-125), Patriots -5.5 (+100)
Colts @ Steelers
The Colts have the best record in the NFL with 7 wins and only 1 loss and boast a 4 game winning streak. Jonathan Taylor has been a monster this season rushing for 153 yards and 2 TD’s on just 12 carries as well as catching a TD. The Colts have topped 30 points in each of their past 4 games and in 6 games on the season overall. QB Daniel Jones is having a resurgent season with 2,062 yards passing with 13 TD’s and just 3 INT’s. The Steelers lost to the Packers last week 35-25 and have allowed at least 30 points in consecutive games and 4 times overall. Pittsburgh traded for Patriots safety Kyle Dugger on Wednesday to help shore up the secondary, but how much of an impact he makes in this game remains to be seen. The Colts are a well oiled machine right now and even with Aaron Rodgers turning back the clock a porous defense is too much to overcome.
Best Bet: Colts -3 (-105)
Vikings @ Lions
The Vikings lost QB Carson Wentz and will be starting 2nd year player JJ McCarthy who has little NFL experience. The Lions are coming off a bye week after beating the Bucs 24-9 in their last game. Jared Goff has posted a 116.4 passer rating while throwing for 1,631 yards as well as 15 TD’s. Jahmyr Gibbs leads a strong rushing attack that averages 133.7 rush ypg the 9th best mark in the NFL. The Vikings defense has been vulnerable to the run conceding 130.4 yards per game on the ground (23rd). The Lions pass rush led by Aiden Hutchenson is averaging 3.3 sacks per game (3rd) and will feast upon an inexperienced QB facing McCarthy at home. I also like Jahmyr Gibbs to get over 74.5 rush yards with the Vikings likely playing from behind and struggling against the run this season.
Best Bet: Lions -8.5 (+105)
Player Prop: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 74.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Jaguars @ Raiders
In their last game before a well timed bye week, the Jaguars were throttled by the Rams 35-7 at Wembley Stadium making it back-to-back defeats for a team that started 4-1. The Raiders have lost 5 out of their last 6 games including a 31-0 shutout loss at the Chiefs last time out. The Raiders are also coming off a bye week so both teams should be as close to 100% as they can get at this point in the season. However, it was announced earlier in the week that 2 way player Travis Hunter will be placed on IR a massive blow for the Jags. The Jags have been struggling on offense and defense during their 2 game losing streak forcing 0 turnovers and allowing 14 sacks in those contests. This is a perfect bounce back spot for the Jags against one of the worst teams in the NFL which ranks 23rd allowing 25.7 points per game while only scoring 14.7 points per contest themselves.
Best Bet: Jaguars ML (-140)
Chiefs @ Bills
This is the marquee matchup of the week with both teams entering with Super Bowl expectations and . Patrick Mahomes just threw for 299 yards in the Chief’s blowout win over the Commanders 28-7 last week, while Josh Allen handled the Panthers easily in their last game 40-9. The Bills have actually been led by their rushing attack this season leading the league in rush yards with 164.4 per game. The Chiefs have a defense which is getting better each week holding their last 2 opponents to just 7 points combined. The Bills defense has had a tendency to concede big runs ranking 30th in the league with 150.3 rush yards allowed per game. Both these teams are truly contenders in a muddled AFC and both have improved with each passing week. I like the total to go over as these 2 teams tend to have shootouts when they play each other with the total going over in each of their past 3 meetings head-to-head.
Best Bet: Over 49 (-150)
Seahawks @ Commanders
The Seahawks have won their past 2 games and 5 out of 6 including covering the spread in all of those victories. Sam Darnold has quietly been playing great football averaging 264.8 pass ypg while throwing for 10 TD’s and only 2 INT’s. He will travel DC to face a Commanders which will welcome back the return of QB Jayden Daniels after he was injured in their week 7 loss to the Cowboys. Backup Marcus Mariota threw 2 picks in their 28-7 loss to the Chiefs last week while losing star WR Terry Mclaurin to a right quad injury that will keep him out of this game. The Commanders defense is allowing 372.8 ypg (27th) and will be facing an 11th ranked Seahawks offense that is gaining 350.6 ypg. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is averaging 8 catches for 139 yards and a TD over his past 3 games.
Best Bet: Seahawks -2.5 (-120)
Player Prop: Jaxson Smith-Njigba TD (-115)
Best Bets:
- ATLvsNE Under 47 (-125)
- Patriots -5.5 (+100)
- Colts -3 (-105)
- Lions -8.5 (-105)
- Jaguars ML (-135)
- KCvsBUF Over 49 (-150)
- Seahawks -2.5 (-120)
Player Props:
- Gibbs Over 74.5 (-115)
- JSN TD (-115)
The Bookie of Eli 
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