Intro (Full Card at End)
Somehow there are only 4 regular season games remaining as we are already in week 11 of the 2025 college football season. So far this year we are 52-36 on our college football picks picking ATS just a hair under a 60% win rate. I’ll break down every major matchup from Saturday’s slate using statistical analysis and historical trends so that you can make the best bets possible in week 11!
Northwestern @ (19)USC
We are blessed with another quality Friday night college football game this week. Northwestern travels to LA Memorial Coliseum for a Big 10 meeting with the 19th ranked USC Trojans. Northwestern saw their 4 game winning streak snapped at the hands of Dylan Raiola and Nebraska 28-21 in their last game before a bye week in week 10. The Wildcats have covered the spread in 5 out of their last 6 not including their push as 7 point underdogs against the Cornhuskers. USC faced that same Nebraska team and took them down 21-17 in week 10 a nice bounce back result after they lost to Notre Dame in South Bend 34-24 in week 9. The under has hit in 3 straight games that have involved USC and Northwestern has had 6 out of their 8 games go under so far this year.
Best Bet: Under 52.5 (-115)
(7)BYU @ (8)Texas Tech
The marquee matchup of the week with 2 top 10 ranked Big 12 teams that has serious playoff implications. The 8-1 Texas Tech Raiders host the undefeated BYU Cougars to begin the Saturday slate. The Cougars are fresh off a bye week and a 41-27 win over Iowa State last time out as well as a 24-21 victory over Utah the week before that. There have been some close calls, but winning 10 games in a row dating back to last season is extremely impressive. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders put up 42 or more points in their last 2 games bothe easy wins against Kansas State and Oklahoma State after being upset by Arizona State 26-22 in week 8. These 2 teams are both humming on offense with the 2 squads combining for 79 ppg on offense so far this season. I also think the spread is way too big with Texas Tech 10.5 point favorites against an unbeaten BYU.
Best Bet: Over 51.5 (-115), BYU +10.5 (-115)
(5)Georgia @ Mississippi State
In search of their 5th straight victory, Georgia travels to Starkville for a faceoff with a Mississippi State team coming off a win over Arkansas 38-35 last week. UGA took down Florida 24-20 last week and has won 21 out of 27 games against Mississippi State and hasn’t lost to them since 2010. QB Gunner Stockton has thrown for 1,776 yards and 12 TD’s with just 2 INT’s while leading SEC QB’s with 7 rushing TD’s. Mississippi State snapped a 16 game conference losing streak with their win last week and is an 8.5 point underdog at home in this matchup of Bulldogs. The home Bulldogs have struggled to defend against the run so I’m going to take Chauncey Bowens to get over 43.5 rush yards. I also like the points total to go under in this one as the Georgia Bulldogs will slow this game down and keep Mississippi State’s offense off the field.
Best Bet: Under 57 (+100)
Player Prop: Bowens Over 43.5 Rush Yds (-115)
(3)Texas A&M @ (22)Missouri
The Aggies are the highest ranked team in the SEC and carry an unbeaten record into Columbia with both teams coming off a bye week. The 3rd ranked Aggies can take another big step towards landing a high speed in the College Football Playoff with a win over the 22nd ranked Missouri Tigers. The Tigers have lost 2 of their last 3 games following a 5-0 start and freshman QB Matt Zollers will get the start after Beau Pribula dislocated his ankle in their 17-10 loss to then 10th ranked Vanderbilt last time out. Zollers completed 14 of 23 passes for 138 yards and a TD after entering in the 3rd quarter. Standout RB Ahmed Hardy could take pressure off as he ranks 4th in the nation with 937 rush yards and is tied for 5th with 11 rushing TD’s. I like the total in this game to go over the 47.5 point mark as Zollers showed poise in his lone cameo and the Aggies average 37.8 ppg.
Best Bet: Over 47.5 (-115)
(9)Oregon @ (20)Iowa
An underrated matchup on Saturday’s schedule, as both the 7-1 Oregon Ducks and 6-2 Iowa Hawkeyes are coming off bye weeks and will go head to head in what will be the first Big 10 meeting between the 2 schools. The Hawkeyes boast a defense which allows only 13.3 ppg this season 4th best in the nation. It will be strength versus strength as Oregon scores 41.2 ppg 5th best in the country. The Ducks have won their last 10 road games the nation’s current longest road winning streak and Iowa is winless in its last 11 games against ranked opponents. I like Oregon in this matchup as 6 point road favorites with the Ducks simply having too much talent on both sides of the ball.
Best Bet: Oregon -6 (-110)
LSU @ (4)Alabama
QB Ty Simpson and the 4th ranked Crimson Tide will welcome LSU to Tuscaloosa as significant favorites after LSU were dominated by Texas A&M last week for their 3rd loss of the season. That loss likely ended their hopes for a CFP spot and led to the firing of head coach Brian Kelly. RB coach Frank Wilson will serve as the interim coach and will hope the team rallies behind him after 3 losses in their last 4 games. Alabama actually ranks 114th in the FBS and 14th in the SEC with a mere 118.9 rush yards per game, but have been bailed out time and again by Simpson’s stellar play. The Heisman frontrunner has 2,184 pass yards this year to go along with 20 TD’s and just 1 INT. Last time out they were able to escape South Carolina’s upset bid with a 29-22 road win behind his 253 pass yards and 2 TD’s. I think Alabama wins this game in the end, but LSU gets a boost from the firing of Brian Kelly so I’ll be taking them to cover the 10 point spread as road underdogs. I do think Alabama’s running game will improve as the season goes on especially with Jam Miller getting fully healthy.
Best Bet: LSU +10 (-100)
Y Player Prop: Jam Miller Over 52.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Full Card
Best Bets:
- NWvsUSC Under 52.5 (-115)
- BYU +13.5 (-115)
- BYUvsTTU Over 50.5 (-115)
- UGAvsMSST Under 57 (+100)
- TAMvsMIZZ Over 47.5 (-115)
- Oregon -6 (-110)
- LSU +10 (-100)
Player Props:
- Bowens Over 43.5 Rush Yds (-115)
- Jam Miller Over 52.5 Rush Yds (-115)
The Bookie of Eli 
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