Intro (Full Card at End)
Last week we saw crazy upsets and last second games that came down to the wire. This week we have a jam packed slate of games starting with the Falcons taking on the 7-2 Colts in the NFL’s 1st ever game in Berlin, Germany. With 12 different matchups on Sunday I’ll break down the 10th week of NFL football using statistical analysis and historical trends so that you can make the best bets this weekend.
Falcons @ Colts (Germany)
This will be the 5th game played in Germany and the 1st ever in Berlin and will feature the Colts and the Falcons. Last week the Colts saw their 4 game winning streak snapped last Sunday with a 27-20 loss to the Steelers. While the Falcons lost to the Patriots 24-23 after a missed game tying extra point with less than 5 minutes left by Falcons kicker John Parker Romo. Romo was subsequently cut and replaced by veteran Zane Gonzalez the team’s 3rd kicker in 10 weeks. The Falcons have struggled to run the ball as of late with star RB Bijan Robinson averaging just 37 ypg in his last 3 outings. Things won’t get any easier for him as Indianapolis ranks 4th in the league allowing just 87 rush ypg and have held opponents to only 20.1 ppg 7th best in the NFL. Atlanta QB Michael Penix did manage to toss 3 TD’s in last week’s loss all caught by Drake London both career highs. Colts should win this game and cover the spread, but I do like the Drake London to score a TD with the Falcons playing from behind.
Best Bet: Colts -5.5 (-110)
Player Prop: Drake London TD (+145)
Patriots @ Buccaneers
Tampa Bay fresh off a well timed bye week will host Drake Maye and the New England Patriots boasting a 6 game win streak. The Patriots came out on top against the Falcons 24-23 last week as mentioned above. While the Bucs were at home getting healthy although they will still be without WR Chris Godwin and RB Bucky Irving who are still dealing with injuries. New England has already ruled out RB Rhamondre Stevenson and WR Kayshon Boutte as well so neither team is at 100% in this matchup. Drake Maye has been sacked 34 times this year, the 2nd highest in the league, including 6 sacks in each of the past 2 games. Tampa Bay is 6th in the league averaging 3.1 sacks per game so I expect Maye to get harassed early and often in this cross conference matchup. I also like Rachaad White to get over 41.5 rush yards with Irving still out.
Best Bet: Bucs -1.5 (-130)
Player Prop: Rachaad White Over 41.5 Rush Yds (-120)
Jaguars @ Texans
CJ Stroud who has started all 40 games in which he has played, will be inactive for a crucial AFC South duel with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Stroud suffered a concussion in their 18-15 loss to the Broncos and did not practice all week. Backup Davis Mills will start at QB this week in his place for the 3-5 Tecans who have lost 2 of their last 3 games. Their offense has struggled all year even with a healthy Stroud averaging just 21 ppg 24th best in the league. The Jaguars are suffering from the injury bug as well placing 2 way star Travis Hunter on IR earlier in the week with a knee injury. They will also be without 2nd year WR Brian Thomas Jr. who is still nursing an ankle injury. The point total on this game is incredibly low with all the offensive firepower missing on both sides as bookies have set the line at 38 points. I like the Jags in this game to lean on their running game against a depleted Texans team without Stroud.
Best Bet: Jags -1 (+100)
Player Prop: Etienne Over 54.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Saints @ Panthers
The Saints have lost 4 games in a row and have failed to cover in each with the under hitting in 5 straight not including last week’s push. They also traded WR Rashid Shaheed to the Seahawks and will start Tyler Shough for the second week. Shough threw for 176 yards and a TD with an INT last week in his team’s 34-10 loss to the Rams. The Panthers have a winning record this late in a season for the 1st time since 2019 after their upset of the Packers 16-13 last week. Rico Dowdle has established himself as the team’s top offensive option rushing for 130 yards and 2 TD’s in the win. He became just the 4th player in Panthers’ franchise history with 3 games of 125 yards on the ground in a season. Dowdle should be able to carry the Panthers past the Saints in what is sure to be an ugly game. The Saints are 1-7 ATS as an underdog and the Panthers are 4-0 ATS in conference games.
Best Bet: Panthers -5.5 (-105)
Cardinals @ Seahawks
As mentioned above Rashid Shaheed was dealt to the Seahawks and will provide a solid downfield threat opposite of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN has been the best WR in the NFL this year leading the league with 948 receiving yards. QB Sam Darnold was ridiculously efficient in their week 9 38-14 win over the Commanders completing 21 of 24 passes and throwing 4 TD’s. He will face a Cardinals defense that just shut down one of the NFL’s best offenses holding the Cowboys to 17 points in Dallas. Jacoby Brissett will make his 4th straight start as Kyler Murray continues to nurse a foot injury. Brissett has thrown for 860 yards with 6 TD’s in Murray’s absence performing well in his starts. I like the Seahawks to benefit from a Cardinals team that is traveling across the country and is operating on short rest after playing on MNF.
Best Bet: Seahawks -6.5 (-115)
Rams @ 49ers
An NFC West meeting between two teams with 6 wins so far this year with the Rams having 1 less loss than the 49ers. QB Matthew Stafford has been rejuvenated this year for the Rams leading the NFL with 21 TD passes and is 2nd in the NFC with 2,147 pass yards. 1 of the Rams 2 losses came at the hands of the 49ers earlier in the season when they passed on an overtime FG attempt that would have extended the extra period. The 49ers made quick work of the New York Giants last Sunday with a 34-24 road victory. Star DE Mykel Williams joined Nick Bosa as key members of the San Francisco pass rush who are out for the season after he was injured in the win. The 49ers are a quality team, but their defense has lost 3 of their best players to season ending injuries with the 2 previously mentioned and LB Fred Warner as well.
Best Bet: Rams -5 (-110)
Steelers @ Chargers
Justin Herbert is 2nd in the NFL with 2,390 pass yards and will host veteran QB Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers fresh off their upset 27-20 win over the Colts last week. The win was fueled by their defense which recorded 5 sacks and forced 5 turnovers while holding Jonathan Taylor to a season low 45 rush yards. The Chargers won their last game against the Titans 27-20 but lost star LT Joe Alt for the season. At this point in the season every team is dealing with injury issues, but the Chargers offensive line has been especially hit already down Rashawn Slater and Mekhi Becton before Alt went down. This game is a bit of a toss up, but I’ll take the Steelers as they are healthier and had a great defensive performance against the Colts last week.
Best Bet: Steelers ML (+140)
Full Card
Best Bets:
- Colts -5.5 (-110)
- Bucs -1.5 (-130)
- Jags -1 (+100)
- Panthers -5.5 (-105)
- Seahawks -6.5 (-115)
- Rams -5 (-110)
- Steelers ML (+140)
Player Props:
- Drake London TD (+145)
- White Over 41.5 Rush Yds (-120)
- Etienne Over 54.5 Rush Yds (-115)
The Bookie of Eli 
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