Intro (Full Card At End)
We are now in the phase of the college football season where every week eliminates more and more teams from CFP contention. This week’s slate is no different, as the Oklahoma Sooners travel to Tuscaloosa for a high stakes SEC meeting with the Crimson Tide. That’s not the only elite SEC matchup either, as Georgia hosts Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns who have turned their season around after a slow start. Not to be outdone an interesting ACC matchup between Clemson and Louisville takes place on Friday night as the 2 loss Cardinals hope to bounce back from their overtime loss to Cal 29-26. Last but not least the USC Trojans take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in a matchup of ranked Big 10 teams. With so many quality games on Saturday I’ll break down each of these matchups using statistical analysis and historical trends so that you can make the best bets this week!
Clemson @ (20)Louisville
The Clemson Tigers have had their worst season since 2010, dropping 5 of their 9 games this year. The Tigers did win their last game 24-10 at home against a Florida State team who have lost 5 out of their last 6 games. The Louisville Cardinals will be eager to shake off a bitter overtime loss last week in OT to Cal and will play with extra intensity as this game will make or break their CFP hopes. The Cardinals’ defense is ranked 13th nationally in yards per play allowing just 4.6, but gave up a season-worst 427 yards in their loss last week. Clemson’s offense and QB Cade Klubnik, who was a Heisman favorite entering the season, have struggled this year with Klubnik throwing for more than 300 yards just twice this season. The other QB in this game, Miller Moss, is coming off his worst game of the season completing just 52.6% of his passes for 203 yards and an INT last time out. Louisville’s defense is the best unit in this game and will enjoy a raucous home crowd on a rare Friday matchup with a team that still has CFP hopes in week 12.
Best Bet: Louisville -1.5 (-125)
(9)Notre Dame @ (22)Pittsburgh
Another ACC matchup this time the Fighting Irish travels to face the Pittsburgh Panthers with both teams riding big win streaks. Pitt hasn’t lost a game in 5 weeks and Notre Dame has gone unbeaten in 7 games since starting the season 0-2. The Fighting Irish are coming off a 49-10 win against Navy last weekend while Pitt defeated Stanford 35-20 on the road in their last game before a bye last week. Jeremiyah Love has emerged as a Heisman candidate rushing for 988 yards 5th most in the country and 13 TD’s. Love will go up against a Pitt run defense which is 3rd in the nation allowing just 80.7 rush ypg and leads the nation with 2.4 ypa rushing. Pitt’s offense has been on a heater recently and averages 39.7 ppg only slightly better than Notre Dame’s 38.7 ppg as both are top 10 in the country. I like the over in this contest with both teams scoring points for fun and boasting balanced offenses.
Best Bet: Over 52 (-135)
(11)Oklahoma @ (4)Alabama
The marquee matchup of the week features John Mateer and the 11th ranked Oklahoma Sooners going to Tuscaloosa for a meeting with the 4th ranked Crimson Tide. Alabama is lead by QB Ty Simpson who is currently 3rd in the current odds to win the Heisman. The Tide haven’t lost a game since their opening week defeat to Florida State 31-17 all the way back in August. While Oklahoma is coming off a bye with a quality 33-27 win at Tennessee in their last game but have dropped 2 out of their last 4 games. Coach Kalen DeBoer and Alabama will be eager to avenge their 24-3 defeat to the Sooners last season. Simpson played briefly in last season’s loss, but will be front and center on Saturday as he has completed 66.9% of his passes for 2,461 yards and 21 TD’s with just 1 INT so far this season. The have regressed a bit defensively as of late giving up 34 to Ole Miss and 27 to Tennessee, but still rank 4th in the country giving up only 2.5 yards per rush and the Crimson Tide have been struggling to run the ball all season averaging only 3.5 ypc (120th). I like Alabama in this game to cover the spread as home favorites as the Sooners have cooled off a bit down the stretch and will be without star Mason Thomas who suffered a leg injury returning a fumble for a TD in their last game.
Best Bet: Alabama -5.5 (-115)
(21)Iowa @ (17)USC
The 2-loss Trojans still have a realistic shot at the CFP and will face the 21st ranked Iowa Hawkeyes in LA knowing that a loss would end their hopes. Iowa dropped an 18-16 heartbreaker at home to the then 9th ranked Oregon Ducks on a last second FG. USC easily took down a quality Northwestern squad last week 38-17 covering the 14.5 point spread. The Trojans lead the Big 10 in total offense with 503.2 ypg and will go up against an Iowa defense which surrenders just 13.7 ppg. This is an interesting matchup, but I like the Hawkeyes defense who just held Oregon to just 112 yards through the air. I also like Iowa RB Kamari Moulton who has gone over his rush yards total in 5 straight games and will be facing a poor USC rush defense (126th).
Best Bet: Iowa +7 (-120)
Player Prop: Moulton Over 74.5 Rush Yds (-115)
(10)Texas @ (5)Georgia
The Texas Longhorns will travel to Athens, Georgia for a rematch of last year’s SEC title game. Georgia won that game 22-19 in overtime last December and has won 5 straight games leading up to this matchup. Texas won some close games recently beating Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt by a combined 13 points before a bye last week. QB Arch Manning has had a revival since his slow start to the season posting back to back games with at least 328 passing yards and 3 TD’s. Bulldog’s QB Gunner Stockton has done well in his first full season under center passing for 15 TD’s with only 2 INT’s to go along with 7 rushing scores. On the defensive side of the ball, the Dawgs have had a tendency to give up big plays through the air conceding 11.1 yards per completion (60th). Much of that has to do with their absolute inability to get pressure as they are 132nd in sacks averaging just 1.2 per game. Both teams are strong against the run game on defense especially the Longhorns who are 2nd in the country allowing just 78.9 ypg on the ground. I think the Longhorns have a stronger defense and can cover the 6 point spread as road underdogs. I’ll also be targeting the point total at 43.5 points to go over with both QB’s heating up recently. Finally I like Arch Manning to get over 224.5 passing yards as he has averaged 335 in his last 2 games.
Best Bets: Texas +6 (-110), Over 44.5 (-135)
Player Prop: Manning Over 224.5 Pass Yds (-115)
Full Card:
Best Bets
- Louisville -1.5 (-125)
- NDvPITT Over 52 (-135)
- Alabama -5.5 (-115)
- Iowa +7 (-120)
- Texas +6 (-110)
- TEXvsUGA Over 44.5 (-135)
Player Props
- Moulton Over 74.5 Rush Yds (-115)
- Manning Over 224.5 Pass Yds (-115)
The Bookie of Eli 
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