Intro (Full Card At End)
The New England Patriots are on top of the NFL once again after their TNF win over the Jets made them the first team to win their 9th game this season. The Broncos and the Colts each have 8 wins, but Indianapolis won’t be playing this week as it is their bye week. The Broncos will face Patrick Mahomes and the red hot Kansas City Chiefs in a huge matchup of potential playoff teams in the AFC. NFL history will be made when Washington and Miami play the league’s 1st ever game in Madrid, Spain. I’ll break down this Sunday’s slate using statistical analysis and historical trends to help determine the best bets for week 11 of the NFL!
Commanders vs Dolphins (Madrid, Spain)
As mentioned above this will be the NFL’s first regular season game in Spain and will feature a pair of 3-7 teams. The Commanders have lost 5 in a row and will be without QB Jayden Daniels who suffered a dislocated elbow 2 weeks ago. The Dolphins are in better form winning 2 of their past 3 including a massive 30-13 upset of the Bills last week that snapped a 7 game losing streak against their AFC East rival. Star WR Terry McLaurin will also miss this game for the Commanders as he is still dealing with a quad injury and Marcus Mariota will once again start at QB. An even bigger issue than the injuries on offense has been their defense which has allowed 38 or more points in 3 of their last 5 losing by a margin of 21 or more in 4 straight. Expect an ugly international game between 2 teams which have disappointed so far this year. However, Marcus Mariota tends to rely heavily on checkdown so I’ll be targeting the over on his passing completions.
Best Bet: Dolphins -2.5 (-110)
Player Prop: Mariota Over 17.5 Pass Comp (-130)
Packers @ Giants
There were a lot of changes in New York this week with the firing of head coach Brian Daboll after 3 plus seasons and Jameis Winston’s promotion to the temporary starting QB over Russell Wilson. Rookie QB Jaxson Dart suffered a concussion in their loss to the Bears already his 4th time entering concussion protocol this season. Winston will go up against one of the best defenses in the NFL leading the league in yards per completion allowed (8.3) and 2nd in yards per play (4.8). Former Cowboys DE Micah Parsons who the Packers traded for in the offseason has a perfect 8-0 record against the G-men tallying 4.5 sacks in his last 5 meetings. The Giants will be without WR Darius Slayton and LB Kayvon Thibodeaux, both key starters, to go along with Dart and have listed safety Tyler Nubin and DL Nunez-Roches as doubtful to play. This is a layup for the Packers who will face an injured Giants team that just fired their head coach and a chance for the offense to get back on track as they have just 20 total points over their past 2 games.
Best Bet: Packers -6.5 (-140)
Texans @ Titans
The Houston Texans and QB Davis Mills who is filling in for an injured CJ Stroud will travel to face Cam Ward and the Tennessee Titans who had a much needed bye week last Sunday. Mills and the Texans scored 26 points in their come-from-behind victory versus the Jaguars in week 10 in one of the best games of the day. 5 time Pro Bowl DE Danielle Hunter tied a career high 3.5 sacks as well as a forced fumble and sacked Ward twice in their last meeting. Ward has thrown for 1,750 yards 5 TD’s to go along with 6 INT’s and has been sacked a league-high 38 times losing 5 fumbles. Tennessee has just 1 win on the season and is 0-3 since firing head coach Brian Callahan. I expect that trend to continue, but I do expect the Titans to play better offensively coming off a bye and returning WR Calvin Ridley.
Best Bet: Texans -5.5 (-105), Over 37.5 (+100)
Chiefs @ Broncos
The Chiefs are 5-4 and their streak of 9 straight division titles is in jeopardy to the team they face this Sunday, the Denver Broncos. A win for the Broncos would give them a 3.5 game lead with 6 games remaining while a loss would make the race more interesting. The Chiefs have won 5 of their last 6 after an 0-2 start, but lost their last game to the Bills before a bye in week 10. QB Patrick Mahomes is on pace for 4,437 yards passing, which would be his highest total since 2022, and 538 yards rushing which would be a career high. He will go up against one of the best defenses in the NFL on Sunday as Denver leads the NFL with 46 sacks and ranks 3rd in yards allowed (91.2). The Broncos tallied 6 sacks in their most recent game, a 10-7 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. They will be without star CB Pat Surtain and RB JK Dobbins who suffered a foot injury against the Raiders. I like the Chiefs in this game with the Broncos good fortune finally catching up to them making the AFC West race tighter.
Best Bet: Chiefs -3.5 (-110)
Lions @ Eagles
The 7-2 Eagles will welcome the 6-3 Lions to the Linc on Sunday Night Football. Both will enter this contest leading their respective divisions with the Eagles riding a 3 game win streak. The Lions doubled up the Commanders 44-22 in their last game responding well from their 27-24 loss to the Vikings the week prior. While Jalen Hurts and the Eagles had a gritty win over the Packers 10-7 on Monday Night Football. WR AJ Brown posted just 2 catches for 13 yards in the win, the 3rd time in his 8 games this season with 2 or fewer catches. Philadelphia has committed a league-low 4 turnovers this season 2 fewer than the Lions as both teams take care of the ball well. Jared Goff and the Lions offense is averaging 31.4 ppg, 2nd only to the Colts, and Goff has completed a league-best 74% of his passes for 2,235 yards with 20 TD’s and just 3 INT’s. I like the Lions to win this game outright on the road and I’ll also be targeting the under on AJ Brown’s receptions.
Best Bet: Lions ML (+130)
Player Prop: AJ Brown Under 59.5 Rec Yds (-110)
Cowboys @ Raiders
The Monday Night Football this week will be the 2-7 Raiders who are on a 3 game losing streak host the up and down 3-5-1 Cowboys. Las Vegas lost an ugly Thursday Night Football game to the Broncos last week 10-7. Dallas is averaging 40.3 points per game in their 3 wins, but have yet to score more than 24 points in any other game. The Cowboys were also on bye this last week and this will be the first game they have played since the tragic death of DE Marshawn Kneeland’s death. The Raiders are a joke of a football team right now and the Cowboys will have extra motivation to win after the passing of their teammate so I’ll take Dallas to cover the spread as road favorites.
Best Bet: Cowboys -3 (-115)
Full Card
Best Bets:
- Dolphins -2.5 (-110)
- Packers -6.5 (-140)
- Texans -5.5 (-105)
- HOUvsTEN Over 37.5 (+100)
- Chiefs -3.5 (-110)
- Cowboys -3 (-115)
- Lions ML (+130)
Player Props:
- Mariota Over 17.5 Pass Comp’s (-130)
- AJ Brown Under 59.5 Rec Yd’s (-110)
The Bookie of Eli 
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