Intro
Thanksgiving is a special time of the year meant to eat good food and enjoy football all day long. This year we are blessed with a trio of quality matchups beginning with the 7-3-1 Packers versus the 7-4 Lions. Not to be outdone Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will travel to Dallas for a meeting with the Cowboys. The final matchup of the day will feature Joe Burrow for the first time since September 14th when he suffered a grade 3 turf toe injury. Burrow will face Lamar Jackson and the Ravens who have won each of their past 5 games rebounding well from a slow start to their season. With games nearly all day long, I’ll break down each matchup using statistical analysis and historical trends so that you can make the best bets this Thanksgiving!
Packers @ Lions
The opening matchup of the day is arguably the best one, as Jordan Love and the Packers faceoff with their division rival the Detroit Lions. Both teams got wins last week with the Packers defense shutting down JJ McCarthy and the Vikings, while the Lions needed overtime to defeat a Jameis Winston led Giants team. Jahmyr Gibbs posted an absurd 264 total yards to go along with 3 TD’s including the game winning score in overtime. Gibbs will have a tougher time against a Packers run defense which ranks 6th in the NFL allowing an average of 96.5 rush yards per game. This will be a matchup of the Lions explosive offense that leads the NFC in ppg against a stout Packers defense which have allowed the 2nd fewest points in the conference. Both teams trail the Bears in the race for the NFC North title with this showdown playing a pivotal role in the playoff picture in the NFC. The Lions snapped a 7 game Thanksgiving Day losing streak last season and I like them to cover the spread in this one as the home favorites. However, I am going to be targeting Romeo Doubs receiving yards line at 43.5 as he has gone past that number in 6 of his last 8 games.
Best Bet: Lions -2.5 (-115)
Player Prop: Romeo Doubs Over 43.5 Rec Yds (-110)
Chiefs @ Cowboys
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs got a much needed win last week against the Colts recovering from a 20-9 deficit with 14 unanswered in the 4th quarter. The Cowboys got a similar win going on a 24-0 run to comeback from a 21-0 hole. Chiefs DT Chris Jones had 3.5 sacks the last time the Chiefs faced the Cowboys and will matchup with rookie 1st round pick Tyler Booker when attempting to pressure Prescott. Dak and the Cowboys currently lead the NFL in total offense with 387.3 ypg and are 4th in points scored with 29.1 per contest. George Pickens is 1 of just 2 players with over 1,000 recieving yards and with CeeDee Lamb healthy again they makeup a formidable WR duo. The Cowboys have won 3 consecutive games on Thanksgiving Day and are 34-22-1 all-time on the holiday. The Kansas City Chiefs have struggled on the road this year posting a record of 1-4 for the season so I’m going to take the Cowboys to cover the spread in this matchup of 2 teams that are in must-win territory. I’m also going with Rashee Rice to get over 73.5 receiving yards with the Chiefs lacking a running game and facing a Cowboys defense which ranks 30th in the league surrendering 252.3 ypg through the air.
Best Bet: Cowboys +3.5 (-115)
Player Prop: Rashee Rice Over 73.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Bengals @ Ravens
The Bengals haven’t won a game since October 16th carrying a 4 game losing streak into this game while the Ravens are on the opposite end of the spectrum winners of 5 straight. Big news for this game is that QB Joe Burrow is expected to return after a toe injury kept him out most of the season. The Bengals defense has been a major issue giving up 32.7 ppg and 415.8 ypg ranking dead last in both categories in the NFL. They will also be without DE Trey Hendrickson and WR Tee Higgins who have both been ruled out due to a hip injury and concussion respectively. For Baltimore both Safety Kyle Hamilton and Lamar Jackson were injured last Sunday, but have practiced and are expected to start on Thanksgiving. Even with the return of Burrow, I expect the Ravens to handle the Bengals relatively easily in this matchup. Finally I’ll be taking Andrei Iosivas to get over 33.5 receiving yards with Higgings out and Jamarr Chase still serving a suspension.
The Bookie of Eli 
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