Intro (Full Card At End)
An insane college football regular season has unfortunately come to an end with only the conference championship games remaining before the CFP. The Big 12 kicks off Saturday’s action with a BYU-TTU rematch from earlier in the season, a game which Texas Tech dominated. The SEC title game will also be a rematch as the Georgia Bulldogs have a chance for revenge on their old nemesis the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Big 10 has the best game of the day with a pair of undefeated teams putting their records on the line when #2 Indiana faces #1 Ohio State. Finally, the ACC title game will feature a 5 loss Duke team hoping to spoil 10-2 Virginia’s CFP chances. With all these great games on Saturday, I’ll breakdown each matchup using statistical analysis and historical trends so that you can make the best bets for this championship weekend.
(11)BYU vs (4)Texas Tech
BYU will get a 2nd chance against the only team to beat them this year as they matchup with the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the opening game of the day. Texas Tech dominated the previous meeting 29-7 holding the Cougars to 255 total yards and forcing 3 turnovers. If that result repeats itself, Texas Tech will be a top 4 seed and get a first round bye while BYU will be out of CFP contention. If BYU can pull off the upset then they will get into the playoff along with Texas Tech keeping out a team like Miami or Notre Dame. There is a lot up for grabs in this Big 12 Title game and both teams have been fantastic this season. Both head coaches have received massive extensions following their success this year so this could be a rivalry that is here to stay. Unfortunately for BYU, Texas Tech is a bad matchup for their squad as they are just simply more athletic and faster. I like Texas Tech to finish their season as Big 12 Champs, but I do think it will be much closer than it was earlier in the season. With Texas Tech favored by nearly 2 TD’s I’m going to take BYU to cover the spread as underdogs in this one. I’ll be targeting WR Caleb Douglas for TTU to score a TD as he scored against BYU in their regular season meeting and has scored 6 TD’s in his last 5 games.
Best Bet: BYU +13.5 (-115)
Player Prop: Caleb Douglas TD (+130)
(3)Georgia vs (9)Alabama
Another rematch this time in the SEC Title game, as the Georgia Bulldogs who lost to the Crimson Tide 24-21 back in September at Sanford Stadium. These programs have combined to win 6 of the last 7 SEC Championships undoubtedly 2 of the most successful teams in all of college football. Georgia has been unbeatable against pretty much everyone, except Alabama losing 10 of their last 11 against Alabama since 2007 and is 0-4 against the Tide in Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Both teams are coming off sluggish performances as Georgia totaled just 16 points against Georgia Tech last week in an ugly win while Alabama managed to survive the Iron Bowl 27-20 by the skin of their teeth. RB Jam Miller injured his ankle in the win against Auburn and is uncertain to play in Saturday’s game while UGA will be without starting OL Drew Bobo due to a foot injury. With both offenses missing key players I’m going with the point total of 48.5 to go under in this contest. In UGA’s last 14 games the total has gone under 9 times and 10 times for Alabama in that same span. A player prop I’m targeting in this matchup is Alabama QB Ty Simpson to get over 10.5 rushing yards as he has shown his athleticism recently to make up for their lack of a running game.
Best Bet: Under 48.5 (-105)
Player Prop: Ty Simpson Over 10.5 Rush Yds (-115)
(2)Indiana vs (1)Ohio State
The marquee matchup of the day with the top 2 ranked teams in the country facing off for a Big 10 Championship and a perfect season heading into the CFP. Both teams have been dominant on both sides of the ball looking like the most complete squads in the nation all season long. Ohio State’s defense has been historically good leading the nation in total defense (203), yards per play (3.8), pass yards allowed (121.3), and only allowing a ridiculous 7.8 ppg. They will face their toughest test yet as Indiana leis 1st in the country with 44.3 ppg led by Heisman candidate Fernando Mendoza at QB. On the other side of the ball Ohio State has stars everywhere and has put up modest numbers due to the fact that most games have been blowouts. Defensively Indiana has an elite unit of their own holding opponents to just 10.9 ppg only trailing the Buckeyes in that stat and also rank 2nd in rush yards allowed (79.2). Both teams are elite on both sides of the ball which will lead to an exciting matchup before the CFP. There are a lot of similarities between these 2 squads on paper, but Ohio State has significantly more talent and depth so I’m going to take the Buckeyes to cover the 4.5 point spread. I also like the under in this matchup with how strong both teams’ defenses have been this year.
Best Bets: Ohio State -4.5 (-115), Under 48 (-110)
(17)Virginia vs Duke
Duke somehow managed to sneak into the e ACC Title game after a 5 team tie and Virginia led the conference with a record of 7-1 in their ACC games. History will be made in this game as both schools are in search of their first ever conference title. Just 3 weeks ago Virginia beat Duke 34-17 in Durham, NC behind QB Chandler Morris’ 316 pass yards and RB J’Mari Taylor’s 133 rush yards as the duo also scored a pair of TD’s each. The Cavaliers’ defense was also a standout performer in that game holding Duke to just 42 yards rushing on 23 attempts and QB Darian Mensah to 18 of 35 passing for 213 yards. It is often said that “it’s hard to beat the same team twice”, but in this scenario Virginia is an all around better football team than Duke so I like the Cavs to cover the 4 point spread as favorites. Morris and company have been scoring points for fun all year and Duke has a weak defense allowing 414.2 ypg (114th) and 29.4 ppg (101st). I’m also going to target WR Trell Harris to get over 62.5 receiving yards as he dominated this matchup last time these 2 schools met with 8 catches for 161 yards and a TD.
Best Bet: Virginia -4 (-105)
Player Prop: Trell Harris Over 62.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Full Card:
Best Bets
- BYU +13.5 (-115)
- UGAvsALA Under 48.5 (-105)
- Ohio State -4.5 (-115)
- INDvsOSU Under 48 (-110)
- Virginia -4 (-105)
Player Props
- Caleb Douglas TD (+130)
- Ty Simpson Over 10.5 Rush Yds (-115)
- Trell Harris Over 62.5 Rec Yds (-115)
The Bookie of Eli 
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