Intro
The Falcons are coming off a humbling 37-9 loss to the Seahawks last week and have lost 7 out of their last 8 games overall. Meanwhile the Bucs were upset last week by the Saints 24-20 and have lost 4 out of their last 5. This Bucs team has dealt with a myriad of injuries over the past month losing their division lead to the Panthers in the process who are now tied for 1st with them in a disappointing NFC South. Even though the Falcons and Bucs have struggled mightily they have talented players on both sides of the ball and this game has playoff implications for Tampa Bay. This is a must win for the Bucs who will hope to pull away from the Panthers down the stretch of the season.
Analysis
Unfortunately for the Falcons, QB Michael Penix Jr. will not be returning to the field this season after he suffered a season ending knee injury in week 11. Kirk Cousins will get the nod once again in his absence coming off a poor performance against an elite Seahawks defense in which he threw no TD’s and had 2 picks. The Bucs defense has been inconsistent this year giving up 24 or more points in 7 out of their last 10 games. Their strength is in defending the run as they rank 8th in the league allowing just over 100 yards per game. The Falcons have also been inconsistent on defense with their strength coming in defending the pass giving up only 191.5 pass ypg (7th). The Bucs have been surprisingly weak on offense this year primarily due to the injuries of Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, and Bucky Irving at different times this season. Baker played through a shoulder injury last week in the loss to the Saints and Irving played as well so both are expected to start on Thursday night.
Picks
The Falcons are without their starting QB and will not have their top WR Drake London either, a massive blow to an already struggling offense. With the Bucs coming off an embarrassing loss to the Saints I expect them to play with a little extra fire in this matchup. With Mayfield and Irving back as well as LT Tristan Wirfs I like them to cover as 4.5 point favorites at home in this one. I also think that the defenses have the ability to play better than they have shown especially for Tampa Bay. I’m going to target the 1st half point total of 21.5 points to go under in order to avoid any garbage time points that Cousins and co. might produce. Finally for player props I’m going to target Bijan Robinson to get over 36.5 receiving yards as the Bucs are allowing a league-high 53.9 receiving ypg to opposing RB’s and I expect the game script to force the Falcons to pass.
The Bookie of Eli 
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