Intro
The Miami Dolphins have quietly put together a run of 4 straight wins after a 2-7 start to their season and have an outside shot at a playoff berth. The Steelers are now only a half game ahead of the Ravens in the AFC North after Baltimore’s win over the Bengals on Sunday. If Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers lose this game their playoff probability drops from 61% to 45% in a tight race for the division title. Pittsburgh has been up and down this season going 5-5 in their last 10 games although a 27-22 win over the Ravens in their most recent game will surely boost their confidence. These teams are not perfect but both are playing for their playoff lives in December so the intensity levels will be even higher than usual. I’ll break down this matchup using statistical analysis and historical trends so that you can make the best bets for Monday Night Football!
Analysis/Injury News
The biggest news heading into this game is the status of TJ Watt who had to be hospitalized following a partially collapsed lung from a dry needling procedure at the team facility. Watt will not play in this game as announced by head coach Mike Tomlin and the team will miss his presence as the Steelers are 1-10 without the edge rusher since Watt was drafted by Pittsburgh in 2017. QB Aaron Rodgers is coming off a season-high 284 passing yards against the Ravens even while dealing with a broken left wrist. Dolphins RB Devon Achane is averaging 5.8 ypc and has rushed for 1,126 yards this season, trailing only Jonathan Taylor and James Cook entering this week. Achane suffered a rib injury in the 1st half of last week’s 34-10 win over the Jets and did not return but is expected to play tonight. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has struggled in cold weather games going 0-5 in games where the temperature is below 40 degrees at kickoff and the temps are expected to be in the low 20’s in Pittsburgh.
Picks
TJ Watt’s absence is sure to play a role in this matchup, but I simply don’t trust Tua to go into Pittsburgh and win a game in December. Especially with their best offensive player, Devon Achane, not at 100% for this one. So I’m going to take the Steelers to cover the 3 point spread in a must win game at home against a Dolphins team that would be eliminated with a loss. I also like the total to go under 21.5 in the first half as both teams focus heavily on the run game due to the cold weather. Finally, as far as player props go I’m going to target Kenneth Gainwell to get over 21.5 receiving yards as has had 6 or more targets in 3 of his past 4 games and recorded more than 20 yards in all 4 outings.
The Bookie of Eli 
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