Intro
The 2025-26 College Football Playoff kicks off with a bang as Alabama travels to Norman, Oklahoma for a meeting with the Sooners in the 1st round. Alabama got humbled by Georgia in the SEC Championship game 28-7 struggling to move the ball offensively especially on the ground. Oklahoma closed the regular season with momentum winning 4 consecutive games, including a 23-21 victory over Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The Sooners are in the CFP for the 1st time since 2019 and are still in search of their first playoff win having gone 0-4 during the 4-team playoff era. There is also speculation over Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer’s future as he has been linked to the job opening at Michigan. With all these storylines heading into the game I’ll breakdown this matchup using statistical analysis and historical trends so that you can make the best bets possible for the opening game of the CFP!
Analysis/Trends
As mentioned above Oklahoma took down Alabama in their regular season meeting and they are one of the few teams with a winning record against them going 5-2-1 all-time versus the Tide. There are also a number of injuries that will play a massive role in this one as Alabama RB Jam Miller and TE Jose Cuevas are back practicing and expected to play. Sooners DL R Mason Thomas is also back from a quad injury which kept him out of their past 3 games. Thomas will be a huge to an already elite unit as Oklahoma boasts one of the best defenses in the country holding opponents to 2.5 ypc (2nd) and 13.9 ppg (6th). Recently Alabama’s offense has been Ty Simpson or bust as Miller has missed multiple games due to injury and the Tide don’t have another dynamic runner to replace him. Simpson didn’t have his best game against Georgia in the SEC Championship, but did throw for 326 yards with a TD and a pick in his meeting with Oklahoma. Both Alabama’s defense and Oklahoma’s offense have been inconsistent at times but Alabama held Oklahoma to just 74 rush yards and QB John Mateer to 138 passing yards as the last meeting was a defensive battle.
Picks
Alabama doesn’t matchup well with Oklahoma and it showed in their previous encounter. Getting Jam Miller back from injury is a massive boost for their offense, but Oklahoma counters with their own reinforcement of R Mason Thomas who is one of the best defensive players in the country. The Crimson Tide showed all their flaws in the SEC Championship with a defense that can’t stop the run and an offense that gets pushed around in the trenches. Unfortunately for the Tide Oklahoma has an elite defensive line as well as a quality stable of running backs. In a playoff game where everything is on the line, it’s extremely important to be able to pick up those short yards in big moments. That’s why I’m taking Oklahoma to cover as slight home favorites at home in Norman, Oklahoma. Their advantage up front is simply too large to ignore, but I have much more faith in their defense than I do Mateer and the offense. Because of that I’ll also be targeting the point total to go under 41 as both offenses struggle to score points in an intense atmosphere. Finally the player prop I most like heading into this contest is for Alabama TE Josh Cuevas to get over 26.5 receiving yards as Simpson gets the ball out quick to his safety blanket.
The Bookie of Eli 
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