Intro
With Christmas right around the corner, we have a slate of 3 NFL games on Christmas Day that will only add to an already fantastic season. The schedule is headlined by the Denver Broncos fresh off a loss to the red hot Jaguars facing off with the Chiefs without Patrick Mahomes. There is also an NFC North matchup between the Vikings and Lions that is a must win for Detroit. The Lions have to win out and rely on the Packers to lose their final 2 games in order to make the playoffs. Finally, the opening matchup of the day has the Cowboys and the Commanders squaring off in an NFC East matchup which has no playoff implications as both teams are already eliminated. I’ll breakdown each of these matchups using statistical analysis and historical trends so that you can make the best bets on Christmas!
Cowboys @ Commanders
This game has the least amount of playoff implications, but I’m more focused on the spread and the point total anyways. The Cowboys have lost 3 games in a row including last week’s 34-17 defeat to the Chargers that wasn’t particularly close. They have struggled on defense during the losing streak allowing at least 34 points in each of their past 3 games. The Commanders have dealt with a plethora of injuries including an elbow injury for their young QB Jayden Daniels that ended his season before it ever got going. Daniels missed over half the season with a combination of knee, hamstring and elbow injuries this year that led to the Commanders losing 9 out of their last 10. Neither of these teams are the greatest on defense with the Commanders allowing the most passing yards and total yards of offense per game in the NFL. I’m going to take the point total to go over in this matchup with both these teams giving up points in bunches throughout the season. A player prop I’m going to target is WR Terry McLaurin to get over 49.5 receiving yards with backup QB Josh Johnson relying on his best downfield playmaker to get yards in a shootout.
Best Bet: Over 50.5 (-110)
Player Prop: Terry McLaurin Over 49.5 Rec Yds (-110)
Lions @ Vikings
The Lions visit Minnesota with an outside shot at the playoffs (6%) in a must win situation against their NFC North rival the Vikings. As mentioned above Detroit has to win out and rely on the Packers to lose their remaining 2 games in order to earn a playoff berth. Back to back losses to the Rams and Steelers have put a giant dent in their up and down season. Meanwhile, the Vikings have quietly put together a 3 game winning streak albeit against the Giants, Cowboys and Commanders. Still after beating up on the NFC East, the Vikings may be without their starting QB JJ McCarthy who did not practice on Monday due to a hand injury. His status has not been confirmed yet, but if McCarthy can’t go then the Vikings will turn to rookie Max Brosmer who has only made 1 start this season. The Vikings have a quality defense and I think Brosmer can manage the game at home as underdogs against a team which has struggled to stop anyone through the air. I like the Vikings to cover the 7.5 point spread as underdogs and the point total of 45.5 to go under.
Best Bets: Vikings +7.5 (-120), Under 45.5 (-125)
Broncos @ Chiefs
Despite losing last week the Broncos still hold the top seed in the AFC closely followed by the New England Patriots as both share 12-3 records this year. If Denver can defeat the Chiefs and Chargers to end their season they can still hold off New England and earn a bye as the conference’s top team. The Chiefs have been humbled this season after winning the AFC West for 9 consecutive years they lost their franchise QB Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL in week 15 and have already been eliminated from playoff contention. Even though the Chiefs defense has been their strength this year only allowing 19.6 ppg to opponents (4th) this season, they still gave up 26 points to the 2 win Titans last week. Without a competent offense there is simply too much pressure on Chris Jones and the defense to come up with stops. The Broncos have a strong defense, but have gotten exposed a little in their past 2 games giving up 26 to the Packers and 34 to the Jaguars last week. Therefore I like the point total of 36 to go over with both defenses going through a rough patch right now. As far as player props go I like WR Troy Franklin to get over 3.5 receptions as he has recorded 4 or more catches in 6 of his last 8 games.
The Bookie of Eli 
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