Intro
The final week of the NFL regular season is upon us and there are 2 games on Saturday which will greatly affect the NFC playoff picture. Beginning with a NFC South matchup between the Panthers and the Bucs, with the winner clinching the division title. The loser will miss the playoffs entirely as the Packers have already clinched the final wild card spot. Saturday night the Seahawks will travel to San Francisco for a meeting with the 49ers with the winner taking the 1 seed into the playoffs. The loser will still earn a wild card spot, but a bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs would be a huge bonus for either of these teams. I will give an in depth break down of these games using statistical analysis and historical trends as well as highlighting player props with contract incentives which will help you make the best bets in week 18 of the NFL season!
Panthers @ Bucs
The Panthers beat Tampa Bay 23-20 at home on December 21st and the Bucs have lost 4 consecutive games. All 4 losses have been by 4 or fewer points and they have lost 7 of their past 8 games overall. Even if the Bucs win this game they may not make the playoffs, if the Falcons beat the Saints the Panthers would still win the division. Tampa Bay needs some help from the Saints, but they must focus on the Panthers who have 6 wins by 3 points or less. Bryce Young and the Panthers only managed 54 passing yards in last week’s 27-10 loss to the Seahawks and their stifling defense last week. However, the Bucs have a banged up defense with top CB Jamal Dean and LB Anthony Nelson ruled out for this one. The Bucs are favored by 3 points despite losing to this Panthers team just 2 weeks ago and I cannot trust the Bucs after losing 7 of their last 8 games to end the season. I’m going to take the Panthers money line with their defense and rushing attack carrying them to their first playoff berth since 2017.
Best Bet: Panthers ML (+140)
Seahawks @ 49ers
The marquee matchup of the week with everything to play for in week 18 as the winner will take home the NFC West title as well as the NFC’s top playoff spot. Both teams enter this game with 6 game winning streaks and the 49ers have done this despite injuries to their best defensive player in DE Nick Bosa and LB Fred Warner. The 49ers beat the Seahawks at home 17-13 in the first game of the season, but the Seahawks have one of the best defenses in the NFL holding 4 of their last 5 opponents to 16 points or fewer. San Francisco had a wild win last week 42-38 holding on late to take down the Bears in Chicago. 49ers TE George Kittle and LT Trent Williams are listed as questionable for this game and their participation will play a major role in this matchup. Their offense has scored 37 or more points in each of its past 3 games and the Seahawks have started slowly scoring an average of 7 points in the first half over its past 5 games. The 49ers are starting to click on offense heading into the playoffs and if Williams and Kittle are able to play then I expect them to cover as home underdogs.
Best Bet: 49ers +2.5 (-120)
Player Props
With many of the week 18 games lacking playoff implications there isn’t as much to play for as a normal week for most teams. However, for players who have contract incentives and are not far away from reaching those goals there is a lot of money to earn. For example, 49ers WR Kendrick Bourne is just 49 receiving yards from earning a $250,000 bonus and currently has a line of only 7.5 receiving yards. Another player to watch is Titans RB Tony Pollard who needs 66 yards to earn another $250,000, Pollard has gone over that total in 4 straight and his line is set at exactly 66.5 rush yards. Finally, I like Hollywood Brown to score as he earns $750,000 with another TD to bring his season total up to 6. His odds to score is +370 right now and without much to play for in week 18 between the Chiefs and the Raiders I like Brown to stat pad in that matchup.
The Bookie of Eli 
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