Intro
There are just 4 teams remaining in the pursuit of the 2025/26 CFP National Championship. Oregon and Indiana will face off in a Big 10 rematch, while a pair of underdogs in Miami and Ole Miss matchup in the other semifinal game. All 4 teams have shown their quality and composure down the stretch on both sides of the ball and each of these semifinal games are sure to be electric. I’ll break down each of these matchups using statistical analysis and historical trends so that you can make the best bets for these final CFP games.
Miami vs Ole Miss
2 of the most unexpected teams with compelling storylines meet in the first game of this year’s final four. The Miami Hurricanes upset both Texas A&M and Ohio State in the playoffs so far relying on a suffocating defense and mistake free offense. The Ole Miss Rebels have used a high powered offense to lead them to a blowout win over 11th seeded Tulane before a stunning comeback win over the 3rd seeded Georgia Bulldogs in the quarterfinal. Ole Miss has scored a combined 80 points between their 2 games and QB Trinidad Chambliss has been a huge part of that. Chambliss will face an even tougher challenge against a Hurricanes defensive line which has tallied 12 sacks in just 2 games and leads the nation with 46 sacks over 14 games. Miami’s offense has been boosted by the performance of RB Mark Fletcher who ran for 172 against Texas A&M and 90 versus Ohio State. Ole Miss is relatively weak against the run allowing 146.1 yards per game for the year (65th nationally) so look for Fletcher to have a big game. I also think Miami’s defensive front will create havoc against Chambliss and company in a low scoring affair with the Rebels coming off an emotional win over Georgia.
Best Bets: Miami -3 (-110), Under 52.5 (-105)
Player Prop: Mark Fletcher Over 88.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Oregon vs Indiana
Indiana beat Oregon in Eugene 30-20 on October 11th and would go on to win the Big 10 as well as blowing out Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl. It has been a picture perfect season for the Hoosiers answering every challenge as well as QB Fernando Mendoza winning the Heisman. Oregon meanwhile has had to stew in their defeat taking their frustrations out on every opponent unlucky enough to be in their path. The Ducks defense shutout a quality Texas Tech team in their last game and have held their opponents to 16 or fewer points in 6 out of their last 8 games. In their regular season meeting the Hoosiers held Oregon to a season-low 267 total yards and intercepted QB Dante Moore twice. Despite all this it is hard to beat a team twice and this Ducks defense is legit, so I’m going to take Oregon to cover as underdogs and the under again. For player props a line I’ll be targeting is for Indiana RB Roman Hemby to get over 61.5 rush yards as he has averaged 74.2 ypg over his last 10 games.
The Bookie of Eli 
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