Intro
The 2nd round of the NFL playoffs is fast approaching and with just 8 teams left standing, there is sure to be plenty of drama between now and the Super Bowl. The matchups kickoff with an enticing game between the Buffalo Bills and the top seeded Denver Broncos on Saturday. Later in the day, a 3rd meeting between NFC West rivals as the 49ers travel to Seattle for a meeting with the Seahawks. Sunday begins with an old school battle between 2 teams with stout defenses as the Houston Texans visit Foxborough to face off with Drake Maye and the Patriots. Finally, the Bears will play host to Matthew Stafford and the Rams with both teams either playing the best or worst football at any given time. I’ll break down each of these 4 games using statistical analysis and historical trends so that you can make the best bets for the Divisional Round!
Bills @ Broncos
The playoffs open with Josh Allen and the Bills fresh off a thrilling win over the Jaguars traveling to Denver for a meeting with Bo Nix and the Broncos. Allen was superhuman in the first round tallying 2 TD’s on the ground and 1 through the air as well as throwing a game deciding 36 yard pass with only a minute left. This was the first time in Bills’ franchise history that they won a playoff game after trailing in the final 2 minutes. Allen will have his hands full with a Broncos defensive unit that has been one of the best in the NFL this season. Sean McDermott’s squad holds teams to just 18.3 points per game 4th best in the league. The Broncos led the NFL with 68 sacks during the regular season and the Bills have struggled at times to protect Allen. In their week 12 loss to the Texans they allowed Allen to be sacked 8 times a personal career high. Buffalo will also be without Safety Jordan Poyer and WR Gabe Davis both injured in their win over the Jags. I think this Broncos team is a problem on defense and with Poyer out I’m not sure I trust the Bills who have been relatively average in most categories. I like the Broncos to win outright as slight home favorites and I’ll be targeting Josh Allen to complete over 19.5 passes after he went 28-35 in their last game.
Best Bet: Broncos ML (-110)
Player Prop: Josh Allen Over 19.5 Completions (-110)
49ers @ Seahawks
For the 2nd time in 3 weeks, these NFC West foes will meet and the stakes have never been higher with the winner advancing to the NFC Championship. The Seahawks won the last matchup to secure the division and #1 seed in the NFC with their defense holding the 49ers to just 173 yards of total offense. Both 49ers LB Fred Warner, LT Trent Williams and WR Ricky Pearsall were limited practice participants this week and their status will be massive with TE George Kittle out for the season with an Achilles injury. No QB in the NFL has won more games than Sam Darnold over the past 2 seasons (28) and the Seahawks will need him to perform if they want to make a run. Darnold hasn’t played particularly well against the 49ers in their previous 2 meetings throwing for just 348 total yards and 0 TD’s. These teams know each other well and I expect a close game, so I’m going to take the 49ers to cover the 7.5 point spread as road underdogs. I’m also going to take the under in this as the Seahawks have held opponents to an NFL leading 17.2 ppg while Darnold has struggled against San Francisco this season.
Best Bets: 49ers +7.5 (-115), Under 45.5 (-115)
Texans @ Patriots
The Houston Texans are on fire right now having won each of their past 10 games, but CJ Stroud and company will now face their toughest test yet. The New England Patriots made quick work of the Chargers in the opening round and have held their opponents to 20 points or fewer in 6 out of their past 8 games. Drake Maye is an MVP frontrunner and has looked like a franchise QB this season making one of the most substantial 1st to 2nd year jumps in recent memory. The Texans blew out the Steelers in their 1st round matchup, but their offense looked disjointed for the majority of the game and with Nico Collins likely missing this game due to a concussion could struggle against strong Patriots defense. Once again I think this will be an ugly game so I’ll be taking the under, but I expect Maye and the Patriots, who are 12-5-1 ATS so far this year, to cover the spread as home favorites.
Best Bets: Patriots -3.5 (+110), Under 41.5 (-125)
Rams @ Bears
The Rams and Bears both had thrilling victories in the Wild Card Round showing both resilience and flaws in their wins. The Bears overcame a 27-16 4th quarter deficit while the Rams needed a last minute TD to take down the underdog Panthers. A development to keep in mind, Matthew Stafford sprained his index finger on his throwing hand that may impact his performance. He is currently a slight favorite to win the MVP award over Drake Maye and will face one of the worst scoring defenses in the NFL as the Bears have allowed 24.6 ppg to opposing teams this season. The Rams have the best scoring offense in the NFL averaging 30.7 ppg led by an elite WR corp which could spell disaster for Chicago. The Bears have 7 comeback wins in the final 2:00 of the 4th quarter, but I think the Cardiac Bears won’t have that luxury this week as the Rams are a complete team that knows how to win. Therefore I’m going to take the Rams to cover the spread as road favorites as well as the over. Finally for player props I’m riding with Davante Adams to get over 52.5 receiving yards as the veteran WR had 13 targets in their last game after returning from injury.
The Bookie of Eli 
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