Intro
The 2nd to last round of the group phase games will take place Tuesday and Wednesday. Offering a final opportunity for many teams who are hoping to make it into the knockout rounds. So far there is only 1 remaining undefeated squad left standing as Arsenal have only conceded 1 goal in 6 games and have scored 17 themselves. The Gunners are closely followed by Bayern Munich in 2nd with 5 wins from 6 and then PSG, Man City, and Atalanta who have each won 4 matches and drawn once. Last year’s runner-up Inter Milan will host 1st place Arsenal in the marquee matchup of the week at the Stadio San Siro. I’ll breakdown the biggest games using statistical analysis and historical trends so that you can make the best bets and player props in matchweek 7 of the UCL.
Arsenal @ Inter Milan
As mentioned above the Gunners have won 6 out of 6 ahead of their trip to San Siro and will face 6th place Inter. A Calhanoglu penalty gave Inter a 1-0 victory over Arsenal on Matchday 4 in the 2024/25 UCL the last time these 2 sides met. Since then Mikel Arteta’s squad have won all 10 of their UCL league phase fixtures. Meanwhile, Inter have lost their last 2 Champions League matches and have never suffered 3 straight defeats in a single Champions League knockout phase. Their Matchday 6 defeat by Liverpool ended their 18 game unbeaten home Champions League run winning 15 and drawing 3 times in that span. However, right now Arsenal are playing the best football in Europe and I think it’s impossible to pick against their combination of shutdown defense and free flowing offense.
Best Bet: Arsenal ML +155
Dortmund @ Tottenham
Another brilliant matchup featuring a Premier League side as the Hotspurs will welcome the German side Borussia Dortmund to London. Both teams are on 11 points with Dortmund one place above their English hosts in 10th in the UCL standings. Dortmund have struggled against Premier League opposition winning only 3 out of their last 15 contests against English teams. Meanwhile, Spurs are unbeaten in 5 matches against German teams in their last 5 matches winning 3 and drawing twice. Spurs coach Ange Postecoglou led his team to its first trophy since 2008 after his side won the 24/25 Europa League. Spurs have won their 3 home UCL matches this season without conceding a goal and I expect that trend to continue in this fixture.
Best Bet: Tottenham ML (+190)
Benfica @ Juventus
Both sides enter this fixture still in contention to reach the knockout stages with the Italian side sitting on 9 points while Benfica are on 6 points having won each of their last 2 games. Benfica was victorious over Juventus last season 2-0 on Matchday 8 of the Champions League and has won 7 out of 9 against the Itialians all-time. Juventus had a disappointing UCL run last season by their lofty standards bombing out in the playoff knockout phase to PSV Einghoven while Benfica made it to the round of 16 before being beaten by Barcelona. I like the Porteguese underdogs Benfica to keep this one close and at least manage a draw against a Juventus team which aren’t playing their best football. I’m also going to be targeting midfielder Leandro Barreiro to get 1 or more shots as he has scored in each of Benfica’s last 2 fixtures.
Best Bet: Benfica Draw No Bet (+240)
Player Prop: Leandro Barreiro Over 0.5 Shots (+150)
Liverpool @ Marseille
Liverpool are 9th place earning 12 points thus far and will travel to France for a fixture with Marsielle who are 3 points behind their English opponent. Marseille have won each of their past 2 matches and a victory over Liverpool would make it a record 3 straight UCL victories for the first time since 2010/11. Striker Igor Paixao has been in red hot form in this competition scoring 4 goals in Marsielle’s last 5 UCL matches. Attacking midfielder Dominik Szoboszlai has been in a similar form finding the net in 3 of Liverpool’s last 4 fixtures including each of its last 2. I’m going to take both Paixao and Szoboszlai to get a shot on target and Liverpool to win as I cannot bet against the Merseyside giants.
The Bookie of Eli 
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