Intro
The final match day of UCL football before the knockout phase begins is already here. Arsenal remains at the top of the table and will more than likely finish in that spot with a favorable matchup against Kairat Almaty. Bayern are in 2nd currently 3 points ahead of Real Madrid and Liverpool who are both tied on 15 points. There is still plenty to play for with 8 teams tied on 13 points and only 8 total byes available. The marquee matchup of the week is Napoli versus Chelsea with the Italian side still needing points to secure a spot in the knockout phase. Elsewhere Inter Milan and Dortmund will fight it out to determine their UCL fate among others. I’ll breakdown the best UCL fixtures this week using statistical analysis and historical trends so that you can make the best bets on Wednesday!
Chelsea @ Napoli
Napoli has been well below their usual standard in the UCL this season only earning 8 points from their first 7 fixtures. It won’t get any easier for them with a matchup against Chelsea who will be hoping to secure their spot in the top 8 that would send them straight to the round of 16. The London team are riding a 3 game win streak and only allowed 1 goal in those victories. Meanwhile Napoli have won just 1 game in their last 6 including 4 draws and have struggled to score netting only 6 times in that span. If Chelsea didn’t need this win for a spot in the top 8 it would be a different story, but I expect the Blues to overwhelm their Italian opposition.
Best Bet: Chelsea ML (+140)
Real Madrid @ Benfica
The Portuguese side Benfica will welcome Real Madrid with the hosts in desperate need of a win to even qualify for the knockout phase. Benfica have earned just 6 points so far through 7 UCL matches and must win to continue their tournament run. Meanwhile Real Madrid have been as dominant as ever in their 2025/26 campaign and will be road favorites in this matchup. Madrid have won 4 of their last 6 in all competitions including a 6-1 dismantling of Monaco in their last UCL fixture. Benfica lost their last UCL game against Juventus 2-0 and I expect a similar result in this matchup.
Best Bet: Real Madrid (-140)
Juventus @ Monaco
As mentioned above Juventus made quick work of their most recent opposition and will now travel to the Stade Louis II for a match against Monaco. Juventus are already qualified for the knockout phase although they could still earn a bye with a win. Benfica are on the verge of not even qualifying for the next phase and will need a positive result if they want to move on. The French team’s recent form does not bode well for Monaco failing to win any of their past 3 fixtures. Juventus are fresh off a win over a strong 3-0 win over Napoli domestically and have been strong away from home winning 4 out of their last 6 away matches. I expect the Italians to end Monaco’s UCL run early this season.
Best Bet: Juventus ML (+120)
Inter Milan @ Borussia Dortmund
2 of the largest and most historic clubs in Europe will face off at Dortmund’s home stadium with both sides all but qualified. Dortmund have scored goals for fun in this competition netting 19 times in 7 matches, but have also struggled in defense allowing 15 in that span. Milan have been in strong form as of late winning 14 of their last 20 away matches overall. In the Champions League specifically Inter have avoided defeat in 32 of their last 40 showing including a run to the final last year. This is the toughest matchup to call so I’ll take the total to go over in this one as I could see either team winning.
The Bookie of Eli 
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