Recap (Full Card At End)
Already a third of the way through the 2025-26 season we now have 0 unbeaten teams, the earliest such occurrence since 2014. The Jets remain as the only team with 0 wins, but the Saints and 5 different AFC teams have only mustered 1 win through 5 games. This slate is packed full of games, with only the Texans and Vikings getting the week off there will be an international game followed by seven 1:00 contests. Not to mention a fantastic Sunday night matchup between the defending AFC Champion Chiefs and the red hot Detroit Lions. I’ll break down each major matchup using statistical analysis and historical trend to give you an edge on the bookies this Sunday!
Broncos vs Jets (London)
The 3-2 Denver Broncos will meet the winless Jets at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London to begin the day kicking off at 9:30 AM. The Broncos had a comeback 21-17 win in their last game against the Eagles led by second year QB Bo Nix who threw for 242 yards and a TD. Broncos RB JK Dobbins has been a big help to Nix and the offense accounting for 402 rush yards and 4 TDs on the season good enough for 5th in the NFL in rush yards and 4th in rushing scores. Nix and Dobbins will face a Jets defense that ranks 25th in rush yards allowed per game and 31st in scoring giving up a ridiculous 31.4 points per contest. The Jets have not been terrible on offense when Justin Fields is healthy averaging 144.4 rushing yards a games that ranks them 4th in the NFL, but their passing attack has been abysmal that has led to just 22.4 points per game. Fields and the offense will have their work cut out for them as they face the 2nd best scoring defense in the NFL that has limited opponents to just 16.8 points per game. This is a bad matchup for the Jets, although there are not too many good matchups for them in this league. Assuming the Broncos are able to handle the travel to London well, I like them to cover the 6.5 point spread as favorites in this matchup. I also like the Evan Engram player prop to go over 19.5 receiving yards as he faces a Jets defense which was shredded by Jake Ferguson last week and Darren Waller the week before that.
Best Bet: Broncos -6.5 (-115)
Player Prop: Evan Engram Over 19.5 Receiving Yds (-115)
Rams @ Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens have been one of the season’s biggest disappointments and they will host the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. The Ravens’ failures can primarily be attributed to injuries, but a defense which ranks 31st in yards allowed is a big reason why they are still seeking their 2nd win of the season in week 6. The Rams have been magnificent on offense especially through the air ranking 2nd on overall yards per game and pass yards per contest. QB Matthew Stafford and WR Puka Nacua have been on a mission to begin the year with Nacua leading the league in receptions and ranking 2nd in receiving yards. To make matters worse for the Ravens, Lamar Jackson is expected to miss week 6 due to a lingering hamstring injury. This should be an easy win for the Rams assuming Lamar is still out as backup Cooper Rush has not been able to offset the defense’s shortcomings. I like the Rams to cover the spread as 6.5 point favorites on the road with Stafford and co. making quick work of a beat up Ravens squad. I also like the player prop for Kyren William to get over 90.5 rushing and receiving yards facing a defense that allows the 4th most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs.
Best Bet: Rams -6.5 (-140)
Player Prop: Kyren Williams Over 89.5 Rush & Receiving Yds (-110)
Browns @ Steelers
The Cleveland Browns who are 1-9 in their last 10 games going back to last season will visit the Pittsburgh Steelers fresh off their bye week. Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers have had an up and down start to their season winning their last game against the Vikings in London 24-21. Pittsburgh’s offense has been serviceable, but they will face a Brown’s defense which has been balling out leading the league in rush yards allowed and yards per play. On the flip side Cleveland’s offense has been terrible, although rookie QB Dillon Gabriel has only started 1 game so far and rookie RB Quinshon Judkins looks to be a breakout performer. The Steelers don’t have their typical shutdown defense allowing 24.5 points per game, but they are elite at getting after the QB ranking 2nd in the league with 3.5 sacks per game. I like the Steelers to cover the 5.5 point spread in this one as home favorites facing an inexperienced QB. I also like Jaylen Warren to get over 44.5 Rushing yards as he is the team’s primary ball carrier and the game script will be in his favor.
Best Bet: Steelers -5.5 (-110)
Player Prop: Jaylen Warren Over 44.5 Rushing Yds (-115)
Chargers @ Dolphins
The Chargers had a hot start winning their first 3 games, but have cooled off losing in consecutive weeks to NFC East opponents. The main culprit for the losing streak has been the offense which has struggled to score points without their RB’s Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton who are both now on IR. The Dolphins have managed to win just 1 game so far this year giving up an average of 29 points per game. Their run defense has been porous allowing 174.2 rush yards per game ranking dead last in the NFL. The Dolphins lost to the Panthers last Sunday 27-24 in a game where they were ahead for the majority until falling to a Bryce Young comeback attempt. Mike Mcdaniel’s squad managed just 15 rushing yards in the loss and will now have to face a Charger’s defense which excels against the pass. This an interesting matchup of the Dolphins who have a decent offense and terrible defense versus a Chargers team which has been struggling as of late on offense, but is still top 5 on defense through the air. I like the Chargers defense to limit the Dolphins passing attack that is now led by Jaylen Waddle and Darren Waller. So I’ll take the Chargers to cover the 2 point spread as road favorites on their cross country trip to Miami.
Best Bet: Chargers -2 (-130)
Patriots @ Saints
The Patriots are coming off their biggest win of the season, a primetime 23-20 win over the division’s favorite Buffalo Bills. Drake Maye threw for 273 passing yards and made clutch throws down the stretch to new WR Stefon Diggs who looks fully recovered from his achilles injury last year. The Saints got their first win of the season with a 26-14 victory over the New York Giants, their first win since December 8th of 2024 when they beat the Giants 14-11 in one of the worst games of the season. Unfortunately for the Saints, they cannot play the Giants every week and in between those 2 wins were 8 straight losses. Their offense has been poor through the air and has struggled to create big plays as they rank 28th in yards per play. The Patriots defense has finally regained young CB Christian Gonzalez who continue to make a major difference to a pass defense that ranks 26th in pass yards allowed per game. The Patriots are riding high after their win over the Bills on Sunday and I expect them to cover the 3 point spread as road favorites in this matchup. I also like TreVeyon Henderson to get over 33.5 rushing yards as the Patriots lost Antonio Gibson in their win last week to a season ending knee injury and Rhamondre Stevenson has had a serious fumbling issue.
Best Bet: Patriots -3 (-110)
Player Prop: TreVeyon Henderson Over 33.5 Rushing Yds (-110)
49ers @ Buccaneers
The 49ers had an improbable overtime victory against the Rams on Thurday Night Football with backup QB Mac Jones passing for 342 yards and 2 TD’s in their last game. The Bucs have already had a number of close wins and their last game was no different with a 38-35 shootout over the Seattle Seahawks. The Bucs offense has been cooking through the air, even in the absence of veteran WR Mike Evans, ranking 6th in the league in pass yards with 243.4 per game led by rookie WR Emeka Egbukah. They will face a Niners defense which has been holding opponents to 19.6 points per contest good enough for 6th in the NFL. Kyle Shanahan’s squad leads the league in passing yards with 290.6 yards per game, but has struggled to get the run game going ranking dead last in the NFL with 3.1 yards per rush. Christian McCaffrey and co. will not find running lanes to be any easier against Vita Vea and the Bucs d-line which has held opponents to just 92.4 rush yards per game. I like the Bucs in this matchup and I expect them to cover the 3 point spread at San Francisco.
Best Bet: Bucs -3 (-110)
Lions @ Chiefs
The Detroit Lions are red hot right now winning 4 straight and covering in all 4 including their last game a 37-24 win in Cincinnati versus the Bengals. The offense has been on fire as they have scored 34 or more points in each of those 4 wins. They will face a Chiefs team who continued their slow start with a 31-28 loss to the Jaguars last week. Kansas City’s defense has been uncharacteristically poor against the run allowing 4.8 yards per rush ranking them at 27th in the league. The Lions have a potent one two punch at running back with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery who have averaged 134.8 rush yards per game so far this season. Another issue for the Chiefs has been a lack of their own running game with Pacheco still working his way back to 100% and Kareem Hunt looking older by the week. The Lions have been a terror to opposing running back s holding them to just 92.2 yards on the season good enough for 8th in the NFL. If Dan Campbell’s team continues to dominate in the trenches then they will find success against a Chiefs team which has looked beatable.
Best Bet: Lions ML (+120)
Best Bets:
- Broncos -6.5 (-115)
- Rams -6.5 (-140)
- Steelers -5.5 (-110)
- Chargers -2 (-130)
- Patriots -3 (-110)
- Bucs -3 (-110)
- Lions ML (+120)
Player Props:
- Evan Engram Over 19.5 Receiving Yds (-115)
- Kyren Williams Over 89.5 Rushing & Receiving Yds (-110)
- Jaylen Warren Over 44.5 Rushing Yds (-115)
- TreVeyon Henderson Over 33.5 Rushing Yds (-110)
The Bookie of Eli 
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